The Prediction Markets

Core PCE YoY - October 2026

Closes
Nov 25, 2026, in 20 days
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 h ago
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What the markets expect

3.2% 27.5%

Next is 3.1% at 22%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

3.2% 27.5%3.1% 22%3.4%+ 17.1%3.3% 12.9%3.0% 10.2%2 others 10.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
3.2%
27.5%
Polymarket 33%(27.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.2%
Last price
33%
Fair, margin removed
27.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Polymarket
3.1%
22%
Polymarket 26.5%(22.1% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.1%
Last price
26.5%
Fair, margin removed
22.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Polymarket
3.4%+
17.1%
Polymarket 20.5%(17.1% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.4%+
Last price
20.5%
Fair, margin removed
17.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$394
Trade this on Polymarket
3.3%
12.9%
Polymarket 15.5%(12.9% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.3%
Last price
15.5%
Fair, margin removed
12.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.0%
10.2%
Polymarket 12.3%(10.2% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 23.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $418 (4.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0%
Last price
12.3%
Fair, margin removed
10.2%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
23.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$418 (4.18x)
Volume
$257
Trade this on Polymarket
2.9%
7.5%
Polymarket 9%(7.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.9%
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.8%
2.8%
Polymarket 3.4%(2.8% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.8%
Last price
3.4%
Fair, margin removed
2.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 3.2%
  • 3.1%
  • 3.4%+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Core PCE YoY - October 2026". 3.2% leads at 27.5%. Next is 3.1% at 22%. $5K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 25, 2026.

This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending October 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for October 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on November 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure (the PCE price index excluding food and energy), not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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