The Prediction Markets

CoreWeave downgraded by Moody's or S&P by...?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

June 30, 2027 50.8%

Next is March 31, 2027 at 28.2%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

June 30, 2027 50.8%March 31, 2027 28.2%December 31, 2026 21%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
June 30, 2027
50.8%
Polymarket 49.5%(50.8% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
49.5%
Fair, margin removed
50.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 31, 2027
28.2%
Polymarket 27.5%(28.2% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 31, 2027
Last price
27.5%
Fair, margin removed
28.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2026
21%
Polymarket 20.5%(21% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
20.5%
Fair, margin removed
21%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • June 30, 2027
  • March 31, 2027
  • December 31, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "CoreWeave downgraded by Moody's or S&P by...?". June 30, 2027 leads at 50.8%. Next is March 31, 2027 at 28.2%. $5K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either Moody's Ratings or S&P Global Ratings publishes a rating action lowering its long-term credit rating for CoreWeave, Inc., or its rating on CoreWeave, Inc.'s senior unsecured debt, by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." "Long-term credit rating" means S&P Global Ratings' long-term issuer credit rating, or Moody's Ratings' corporate family rating or long-term issuer rating, on CoreWeave, Inc. A downgrade of CoreWeave, Inc.'s senior unsecured debt by either agency will qualify, even if that agency's long-term credit rating for CoreWeave, Inc. is unchanged. A change in outlook or CreditWatch/review status alone (for example, a move from Stable to Negative outlook, or placement on review for downgrade) will not qualify. As of market creation, CoreWeave, Inc. is rated B+ by S&P Global Ratings (https://cbonds.com/news/3865295/) and Ba3 by Moody's Ratings (https://cbonds.com/news/3865521/), both below investment grade. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the official rating action publications of Moody's Ratings (https://ratings.moodys.com) and S&P Global Ratings (https://www.spglobal.com/ratings); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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