The Prediction Markets

Costco Credit Card Spend in October

Closes
Nov 7, 2026, in 14 days
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 94 95%

Next is Above 96 at 83%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 94
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 94
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 96
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 96
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$898
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 97
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 97
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$581
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 98
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 98
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 99
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 99
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$124
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$433
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 101
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 101
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 102
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 102
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$427
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 104
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 104
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 110
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 110
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 106
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 106
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 108
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 108
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Carbon Arc

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 94
  • Above 96
  • Above 97

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Costco Credit Card Spend in October". Above 94 leads at 95%. Next is Above 96 at 83%. $4K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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