The Prediction Markets

Costco total cardholders in Q1

Closes
Apr 9, 2027, in 6 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 150.6 million 96%

Next is Above 151 million at 91%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 150.6 million
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 48s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150.6 million
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
92¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 151 million
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 151 million
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 150.8 million
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150.8 million
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$370
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 151.2 million
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 151.2 million
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$306
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 151.4 million
60.5%
Kalshi 60.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 151.4 million
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 151.6 million
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 151.6 million
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 151.8 million
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 151.8 million
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 152.2 million
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 152.2 million
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 152 million
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 152 million
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 152.8 million
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 152.8 million
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 150.6 million
  • Above 151 million
  • Above 150.8 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Costco total cardholders in Q1". Above 150.6 million leads at 96%. Next is Above 151 million at 91%. $2K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 9, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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