The Prediction Markets

Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan by...?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$26K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Before Apr 1, 2027 54.5%

Next is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 31%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
54.5%
Kalshi 54.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Dec 1, 2026
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Dec 1, 2026
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$403
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31
21.5%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 31
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Apr 1, 2027
  • Before Jan 1, 2027
  • Before Dec 1, 2026

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Apr 1, 2027 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan by...?". Before Apr 1, 2027 leads at 54.5%. Next is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 31%. $26K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, a court issues any order — including a temporary restraining order, preliminary or permanent injunction, or other relief — that has the effect of prohibiting or suspending the sale of paid early access to Donald Trump's Truth Social posts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying order includes one that requires official government information to be released to the public simultaneously with, or before, its provision to paying subscribers, if such an order has the effect of eliminating the paid early-access advantage. A qualifying order issued within the market timeframe will resolve this market "Yes" regardless of whether it is later vacated, reversed, stayed, or superseded, and regardless of its stated duration. The primary resolution sources will be official court records and filings; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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