The Prediction Markets

CPI core in October

Closes
Nov 10, 2026, in 18 days
Traded
$795K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 0.0% 94%

Next is 2.0-2.4% at 91%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 0.0%
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$75K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.0-2.4%
91%
Polymarket 91%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0-2.4%
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.6%
78%
Polymarket 78%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.6%
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 0.1%
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.1%
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$214K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.2%
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.2%
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$149K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.2%
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.2%
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.3%
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.3%
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.1%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.1%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$558
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 0.3%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.3%
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.0%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$438
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 24 more outcomes
0.4%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.4%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$861
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5%
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5%
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
11.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$840 (8.40x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.7%
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 11.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $901 (9.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.7%
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
11.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$901 (9.01x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 0.4%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.4%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.5-2.9%
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5-2.9%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.0-3.4%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.0-3.4%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.0%
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.0%
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$560
Trade this on Polymarket
1.9%
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.9%
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.5%
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5%
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$212
Trade this on Polymarket
2.2%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.2%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$288
Trade this on Polymarket
2.3%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.3%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$258
Trade this on Polymarket
2.4%
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.4%
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$276
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 0.5%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.6%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.6%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.7%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.7%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.8%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.8%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.9%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.9%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.0%+
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%+
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.1%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.1%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$296
Trade this on Polymarket
2.8%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.8%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$280
Trade this on Polymarket
2.9%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.9%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Polymarket
0.6%+
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.6%+
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5-3.9%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5-3.9%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: stat.go.jp, bls.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0.0%
  • 2.0-2.4%
  • 2.6%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 0.0% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "CPI core in October". Above 0.0% leads at 94%. Next is 2.0-2.4% at 91%. $795K has traded across 34 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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