The Prediction Markets

CPI core year-over-year in May 2026?

Closed
Jun 10, 2026
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 10, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 160 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Exactly 3.0%
16.7%
Kalshi 20%(16.7% fair)polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.0%
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
16.7%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$679
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.9%
15.9%
Kalshi 19%(15.9% fair)polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.9%
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
15.9%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$262
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.8%
12.5%
Kalshi 15%(12.6% fair)polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.8%
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
12.6%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.7%
10.5%
Kalshi 12.5%(10.5% fair)polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.7%
Last price
12.5%
Fair, margin removed
10.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.4%
7.5%
Kalshi 9%(7.5% fair)polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.4%
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
7.5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.3%
6.7%
Kalshi 8%(6.7% fair)polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.3%
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.7%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.1%
5.9%
Kalshi 7%(5.9% fair)polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.1%
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.9%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$580
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.2%
5%
Kalshi 6%(5% fair)polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.2%
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.2%
4.2%
Kalshi 5%(4.2% fair)polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.2%
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.2%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$303
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.4%
4.2%
Kalshi 5%(4.2% fair)polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.4%
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.2%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$112
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Exactly 2.5%
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.5%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 2.6%
2.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 2.6%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$213
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.3%
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.3%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.5%
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.5%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.6%
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.6%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$124
Trade this on Kalshi
Exactly 3.7%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3840 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Exactly 3.7%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 160 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Exactly 3.0%
  • Exactly 2.9%
  • Exactly 2.8%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "CPI core year-over-year in May 2026?". Exactly 3.0% last traded at 16.7%. Next is Exactly 2.9% at 15.9%. $7K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jun 10, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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