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Trading ended on Jun 10, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Exactly 4.3%28.7%35%28.7% fair32¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Exactly 4.3%28.7%Kalshi 35%(28.7% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Exactly 4.3%
28.7%
35%
28.7% fair
32¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Exactly 4.3%
28.7%
Kalshi 35%(28.7% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 4.3%
- Last price
- 35%
- Fair, margin removed
- 28.7%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 32¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $7K
Exactly 4.4%18.9%23%18.9% fair22¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Exactly 4.4%18.9%Kalshi 23%(18.9% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Exactly 4.4%
18.9%
23%
18.9% fair
22¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Exactly 4.4%
18.9%
Kalshi 23%(18.9% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 4.4%
- Last price
- 23%
- Fair, margin removed
- 18.9%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $7K
Exactly 4.2%16.4%20%16.4% fair21¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Exactly 4.2%16.4%Kalshi 20%(16.4% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Exactly 4.2%
16.4%
20%
16.4% fair
21¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Exactly 4.2%
16.4%
Kalshi 20%(16.4% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 4.2%
- Last price
- 20%
- Fair, margin removed
- 16.4%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $6K
Exactly 4.5%9.9%12%9.8% fair7¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Exactly 4.5%9.9%Kalshi 12%(9.8% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Exactly 4.5%
9.9%
12%
9.8% fair
7¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Exactly 4.5%
9.9%
Kalshi 12%(9.8% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 4.5%
- Last price
- 12%
- Fair, margin removed
- 9.8%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $6K
Exactly 4.1%4.1%5%4.1% fair3¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Exactly 4.1%4.1%Kalshi 5%(4.1% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Exactly 4.1%
4.1%
5%
4.1% fair
3¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Exactly 4.1%
4.1%
Kalshi 5%(4.1% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 4.1%
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $11K
Exactly 4.0%3.3%4%3.3% fair3¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Exactly 4.0%3.3%Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Exactly 4.0%
3.3%
4%
3.3% fair
3¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Exactly 4.0%
3.3%
Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 4.0%
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $11K
Exactly 3.7%2.5%3%2.5% fair— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Exactly 3.7%2.5%Kalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Exactly 3.7%
2.5%
3%
2.5% fair
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Exactly 3.7%
2.5%
Kalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 3.7%
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $6K
Exactly 3.6%1.7%2%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Exactly 3.6%1.7%Kalshi 2%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Exactly 3.6%
1.7%
2%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Exactly 3.6%
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 3.6%
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $6K
Exactly 2.0%0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 2.0%0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.0%
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.0%
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 2.0%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $162K
Exactly 2.1%0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 2.1%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.1%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.1%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 2.1%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $172K
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Exactly 2.2%0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 2.2%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.2%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.2%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 2.2%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Exactly 2.3%0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 2.3%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.3%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.3%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 2.3%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $5K
Exactly 2.4%0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 2.4%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.4%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.4%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 2.4%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
Exactly 2.5%0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 2.5%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.5%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.5%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 2.5%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $86K
Exactly 2.6%0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 2.6%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.6%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.6%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 2.6%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $7K
Exactly 2.7%0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 2.7%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.7%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.7%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 2.7%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $100K
Exactly 2.8%0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 2.8%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.8%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.8%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 2.8%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $515K
Exactly 2.9%0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 2.9%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.9%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 2.9%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 2.9%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $242K
Exactly 3.0%0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 3.0%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 3.0%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 3.0%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 3.0%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $172K
Exactly 3.1%0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 3.1%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 3.1%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 3.1%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 3.1%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $113K
Exactly 3.2%0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 3.2%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 3.2%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 3.2%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 3.2%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $5K
Exactly 3.3%0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 3.3%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 3.3%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 3.3%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 3.3%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $83K
Exactly 3.4%0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 3.4%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 3.4%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 3.4%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 3.4%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $30K
Exactly 3.5%0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Exactly 3.5%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 3.5%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Exactly 3.5%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 3.5%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $127K
Exactly 3.8%0.8%1%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Exactly 3.8%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Exactly 3.8%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Exactly 3.8%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 3.8%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $8K
Exactly 3.9%0.8%1%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 3818 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Exactly 3.9%0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Exactly 3.9%
0.8%
1%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 3818 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Exactly 3.9%
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3818 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Exactly 3.9%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 159 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $8K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Exactly 4.3%
- Exactly 4.4%
- Exactly 4.2%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "CPI year-over-year in May 2026?". Exactly 4.3% last traded at 28.7%. Next is Exactly 4.4% at 18.9%. $1.9M has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jun 10, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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