The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Actor

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$197K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Paul Giamatti 93%

Next is Matt Damon at 92.1%. The venues differ most on Ryan Gosling (Polymarket 43%, Kalshi 79%), a 36-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Paul Giamatti
93%
Polymarket 93%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$673
Trade this on Polymarket
Matt Damon
92.1%
Polymarket 94.2%polled, 32s agoKalshi 90%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 95.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
94.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.8¢
Sell Yes
92.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 92.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 98¢.

John MalkovichArb
91%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 96%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 88¢ and selling on Kalshi at 92¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Andrew Scott
86.7%
Polymarket 85%polled, 32s agoKalshi 88.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
88.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 82¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 86¢.

John Leguizamo
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrew Garfield
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Guitarricadelafuente
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Cruise
58.1%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 51%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 58¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 65¢.

Ryan GoslingArb
54.3%
Polymarket 43%polled, 32s agoKalshi 79%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 44¢ and selling on Kalshi at 74¢ nets 3000 bps before fees.

Robert PattinsonArb
53%
Polymarket 48%polled, 32s agoPolymarket 49%polled, 32s agoKalshi 67%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 49¢ and selling on Kalshi at 66¢ nets 1700 bps before fees.

Show 36 more outcomes
John Turturro
45.5%
Polymarket 61%polled, 32s agoKalshi 30%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 36¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 37¢.

Edward Norton
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthony Ippolito
34.6%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 50%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 35¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 37¢.

Yura Borisov
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yura Borisov
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Sam Rockwell
24%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 32s agoPolymarket 73.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$858
Trade this on Polymarket
Sebastian Stan
21.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 25.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 16¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 18¢.

Colman Domingo
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Polymarket
Dominic Sessa
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dominic Sessa
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jordan Firstman
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Firstman
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh O'Connor
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jack O’Connell
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pedro Pascal
17.8%
Polymarket 14.6%polled, 32s agoKalshi 21%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
14.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.

John Goodman
16.8%
Polymarket 16.8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 17.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $568 (5.68x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
16.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.6¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$568 (5.68x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jaafar Jackson
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Riz Ahmed
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brad PittArb
12.2%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 20%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Steve Buscemi
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Polymarket
Timothée Chalamet
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Skyler Gisondo
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
Miles Teller
7.5%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 32s agoKalshi 11%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.3¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$971 (9.71x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10.3¢.

Michael Fassbender
7.3%
Polymarket 7.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
7.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Channing Tatum
6.9%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket
James Ortiz
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$224
Trade this on Polymarket
Jeremy Strong
6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 32s agoPolymarket 11.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Antonio Banderas
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antonio Banderas
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh O'Connor
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh O'Connor
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Polymarket
Adam Driver
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Himesh Patel
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Javier Bardem
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Bardem
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$499
Trade this on Polymarket
Guy Pearce
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$473
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrew Scott
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Holland
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Charles Melton
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jesse Plemons
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert Aramayo
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Aramayo
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert De Niro
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert De Niro
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Craig
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Ryan Gosling on Polymarket at 44¢, sell on Kalshi at 74¢ (3000 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 21, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 21, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Paul Giamatti
  • Matt Damon
  • John Malkovich

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Paul Giamatti for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Actor". Paul Giamatti leads at 93%. Next is Matt Damon at 92.1%. $197K has traded across 46 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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