The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Actor in a Comedy Series

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Matthew Rhys 90%

Next is Adam Brody at 70%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Matthew Rhys
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matthew Rhys
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Kalshi
Adam Brody
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Brody
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Carell
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Carell
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jason Segel
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jason Segel
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
David Alan Grier
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Alan Grier
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Denis Leary
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denis Leary
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jason Sudeikis
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jason Sudeikis
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Max Burkholder
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Max Burkholder
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tracy Morgan
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tracy Morgan
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Utkarsh Ambudkar
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Utkarsh Ambudkar
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Zach Braff
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zach Braff
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Charles
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Charles
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeremy Allen White
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Allen White
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tim Allen
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Allen
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Matthew Rhys
  • Adam Brody
  • Steve Carell

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Actor in a Comedy Series". Matthew Rhys leads at 90%. Next is Adam Brody at 70%. $3K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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