The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Oscar Isaac 75%

Next is Christopher Abbott at 70%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Oscar Isaac
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oscar Isaac
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Christopher Abbott
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Abbott
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Riz Ahmed
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jamie Bell
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamie Bell
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Avan Jogia
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Avan Jogia
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
David Tennant
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Tennant
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
James Nesbitt
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Nesbitt
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Javier Bardem
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Bardem
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
John Krasinski
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Krasinski
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Bernthal
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Bernthal
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Leo Woodall
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leo Woodall
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Sheen
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Sheen
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Patrick Wilson
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Wilson
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Paul Anthony Kelly
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Anthony Kelly
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sam Worthington
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Worthington
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Oscar Isaac
  • Christopher Abbott
  • Riz Ahmed

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Actor in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television". Oscar Isaac leads at 75%. Next is Christopher Abbott at 70%. $1K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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