The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Actress

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$87K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Julianne Moore 94.7%

Next is Olivia Wilde at 68.1%. The venues differ most on Emily Blunt (Polymarket 11.2%, Kalshi 45%), a 34-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Julianne Moore
94.7%
Polymarket 95%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 94%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julianne Moore
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Julianne Moore
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 94¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 99¢.

Olivia Wilde
68.1%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 65%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 53¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 65¢.

Samantha Morton
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anne Hathaway
67.2%
Polymarket 88%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 4.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$958
Trade this on Polymarket
Tao Okamoto
62%
Polymarket 62%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$654
Trade this on Polymarket
Amanda Seyfried
58%
Polymarket 58%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Penélope Cruz
58%
Polymarket 75.5%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$618
Trade this on Polymarket
Kate O'Flynn
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Polymarket
Ruth Madeley
52.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 63%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ruth Madeley
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ruth Madeley
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 45¢ and selling on Kalshi at 58¢ nets 1300 bps before fees.

Sandra Hüller
51.1%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 63%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$760
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 25¢ and selling on Kalshi at 55¢ nets 3000 bps before fees.

Show 34 more outcomes
Inde Navarrette
50%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 79%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 70%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 1.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 60¢ nets 5880 bps before fees.

Renate Reinsve
46.2%
Polymarket 47%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 44%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Renate Reinsve
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Renate Reinsve
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 46¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 54¢.

Virginie Efira
45.2%
Polymarket 43%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 48%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Virginie Efira
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Virginie Efira
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 45¢ and selling on Kalshi at 48¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Olivia Colman
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Polymarket
Emily Blunt
32.4%
Polymarket 11.2%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 45%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $855 (8.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Emily Blunt
Last price
11.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11.7¢
Sell Yes
10.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$855 (8.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Emily Blunt
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 11.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 36¢ nets 2430 bps before fees.

Daisy Edgar-Jones
29.6%
Polymarket 29.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 57.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $173 (1.73x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daisy Edgar-Jones
Last price
29.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
57.9¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$173 (1.73x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mariana di Girolamo
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jeon Do-yeon
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeon Do-yeon
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marion Bailey
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marion Bailey
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mason Reeves
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mason Reeves
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Parker Posey
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rosalind Eleazar
16.3%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosalind Eleazar
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rosalind Eleazar
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Carrie Coon
13.5%
Kalshi 13.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carrie Coon
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Merritt Wever
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Merritt Wever
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Polymarket
Zendaya
12%
Polymarket 15%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 4.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$732
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Mikey Madison
11.8%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 15%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mikey Madison
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$556
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mikey Madison
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Léa Seydoux
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Léa Seydoux
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Kalshi
Betty Gilpin
9.1%
Polymarket 9.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 13.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $746 (7.46x)
Polymarket
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
9.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
13.4¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$746 (7.46x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
Gemma Chan
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Polymarket
Danielle Deadwyler
8.2%
Polymarket 8.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Michelle Williams
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Williams
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$898
Trade this on Polymarket
Natalie Portman
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natalie Portman
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$813
Trade this on Polymarket
Sophie Okonedo
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sophie Okonedo
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cynthia Erivo
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cynthia Erivo
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michelle Monaghan
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Monaghan
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Isabella Rossellini
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Laura Linney
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laura Linney
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Polymarket
Joan Collins
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joan Collins
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dakota Johnson
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dakota Johnson
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Polymarket
Margaret Qualley
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
Scarlett Johansson
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scarlett Johansson
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket
Shailene Woodley
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shailene Woodley
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$453
Trade this on Polymarket
Lily Gladstone
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lily Gladstone
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$673
Trade this on Polymarket
Kirsten Dunst
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kirsten Dunst
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$976
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 1 h old: Inde Navarrette asks 1.2¢ on Polymarket and bids 60¢ on Kalshi (5880 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Julianne Moore
  • Olivia Wilde
  • Samantha Morton

Live prices for Julianne Moore

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Actress". Julianne Moore leads at 94.7%. Next is Olivia Wilde at 68.1%. $87K has traded across 44 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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