The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Florence Pugh 75%

Next is Sally Field at 75%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Florence Pugh
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Florence Pugh
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sally Field
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sally Field
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Carey Mulligan
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carey Mulligan
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Amy Adams
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amy Adams
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Anya Taylor-Joy
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anya Taylor-Joy
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Camila Morrone
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Camila Morrone
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dove Cameron
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dove Cameron
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Elisabeth Moss
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elisabeth Moss
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ella Bruccoleri
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ella Bruccoleri
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kaley Cuoco
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kaley Cuoco
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Kerry Washington
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kerry Washington
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rachel Weisz
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rachel Weisz
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sarah Pidgeon
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sarah Pidgeon
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Summer H. Howell
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Summer H. Howell
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tessa Thompson
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tessa Thompson
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Florence Pugh
  • Sally Field
  • Carey Mulligan

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Actress in a Limited Series or Movie Made for Television". Florence Pugh leads at 75%. Next is Sally Field at 75%. $1K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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