The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Adapted Screenplay

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$75K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

La Bola Negra 86%

Next is The Odyssey at 67.3%. The venues differ most on The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Polymarket 27.6%, Kalshi 35.5%), a 7.9-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
La Bola Negra
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Odyssey
67.3%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 88.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 91.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
88.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 23¢ and selling on Kalshi at 84¢ nets 6100 bps before fees.

The Invite
66.7%
Polymarket 20%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 93.2%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 87%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
93.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96.4¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$569
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 21¢ and selling on Kalshi at 77¢ nets 5600 bps before fees.

Project Hail Mary
58.8%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 77%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 78%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$772
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$830
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 3.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 71¢ nets 6770 bps before fees.

The Black Ball
56.8%
Polymarket 47%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 86%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$778
Trade this on Polymarket
All of a Sudden
35.6%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 58.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 42.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $870 (8.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$870 (8.70x)
Volume
$979
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$734
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 11.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 33¢ nets 2150 bps before fees.

Dune: Part Three
34.9%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 25.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 57%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 52¢ nets 5180 bps before fees.

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
31.5%
Polymarket 27.6%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 35.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 34.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $287 (2.87x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
27.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
34.8¢
Sell Yes
20.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$287 (2.87x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 26¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 34.8¢.

Being Heumann
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Being Heumann
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Ink
14.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 15%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 28.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ink
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ink
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 19¢ nets 1880 bps before fees.

Show 10 more outcomes
Primetime
12.5%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Primetime
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fatherland
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Saturn Return
9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 34.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
34.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
67.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Polymarket
Clarissa
8.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 13.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 12%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 220 bps before fees.

Wildwood
5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 6%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 180 bps before fees.

The Social Reckoning
4.8%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 3.6%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 9.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$386
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.4¢.

Cry to Heaven
3.1%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 4%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 110 bps before fees.

Toy Story 5
2.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 3.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$543
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Whisper Man
2%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 h agoPolymarket 3.9%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$371
Trade this on Polymarket
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$754
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 1 h old: Project Hail Mary asks 3.3¢ on Polymarket and bids 71¢ on Kalshi (6770 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • La Bola Negra
  • The Odyssey
  • The Invite

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list La Bola Negra for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Adapted Screenplay". La Bola Negra leads at 86%. Next is The Odyssey at 67.3%. $75K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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