The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Animated Feature

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$34K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Wildwood 91.4%

Next is Toy Story 5 at 85.5%. The venues differ most on Hoppers (Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 80%), a 30-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Wildwood
91.4%
Polymarket 90.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 94%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 89¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 96¢.

Toy Story 5
85.5%
Polymarket 84%polled, 45s agoKalshi 90%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 79¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 86¢.

Ray Gunn
77.9%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 81%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 66¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 72¢.

Iron Boy
66.6%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 58%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iron Boy
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$590
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Iron Boy
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 53¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 70¢.

HoppersArb
65.3%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 80%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hoppers
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hoppers
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 62¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 800 bps before fees.

Forgotten Island
59.8%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 63%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 54¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 63¢.

Tangles
48%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 55.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tangles
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tangles
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 46¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 47¢.

Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy BottomArb
30.6%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 45s agoKalshi 29%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$283
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 29¢ and selling on Polymarket at 32¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Hexed
28.5%
Kalshi 28.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hexed
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Minions & Monsters
12.5%
Polymarket 13%polled, 45s agoKalshi 12%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minions & Monsters
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Minions & Monsters
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

Show 5 more outcomes
In Waves
12.5%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
In Waves
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Steps
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steps
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Julián
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Julián
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Violinist
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Violinist
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
GOAT
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 45s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
GOAT
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Hoppers on Polymarket at 62¢, sell on Kalshi at 70¢ (800 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wildwood
  • Toy Story 5
  • Ray Gunn

Live prices for Wildwood

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Animated Feature". Wildwood leads at 91.4%. Next is Toy Story 5 at 85.5%. $34K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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