The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Cinematography

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$15K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 90.6%

Next is Dune: Part Three at 86.6%. The venues differ most on Fatherland (Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 27%), a 25-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The OdysseyArb
90.6%
Polymarket 93.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 89%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 89¢ and selling on Polymarket at 93¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Dune: Part ThreeArb
86.6%
Polymarket 91.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 85%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$151
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 90¢ and selling on Polymarket at 91¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Project Hail MaryArb
73.9%
Polymarket 61.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 85%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
61.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 64¢ and selling on Kalshi at 67¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

La Bola Negra
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Werwulf
57.8%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 60%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 50¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 58¢.

FatherlandArb
45.4%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 27%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 39¢ and selling on Polymarket at 51¢ nets 1200 bps before fees.

Wild Horse Nine
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fjord
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Digger
25.9%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 26%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$512
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 25¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 29¢.

Behemoth!
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
23.2%
Polymarket 15%polled, 25s agoKalshi 26%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.

Disclosure Day
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ink
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Minotaur
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minotaur
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rose
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rose
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Obsession
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$51
Trade this on Polymarket
Josephine
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Fatherland on Kalshi at 39¢, sell on Polymarket at 51¢ (1200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • Dune: Part Three
  • Project Hail Mary

Live prices for The Odyssey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Cinematography". The Odyssey leads at 90.6%. Next is Dune: Part Three at 86.6%. $15K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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