The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Costume Design

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$46K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

La Bola Negra 80%

Next is The Odyssey at 73.8%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
La Bola Negra
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Odyssey
73.8%
Polymarket 83%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 58.5%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 68¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

The Black Ball
61.6%
Polymarket 75.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 21.2%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 25.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $394 (3.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
75.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76.9¢
Sell Yes
73.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
21.2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
25.4¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$394 (3.94x)
Volume
$496
Trade this on Polymarket
Dune: Part Three
55.2%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 13.2%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
13.2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
6.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 20¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 5000 bps before fees.

Sense and Sensibility
49.6%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 9.3%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 80%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
9.3%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 18¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 5200 bps before fees.

Werwulf
43.6%
Polymarket 47%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 7.6%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 73%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$108
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$404
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 12¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 5800 bps before fees.

I Love Boosters
35.7%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.8%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 41%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 5.3¢ and selling on Kalshi at 32¢ nets 2670 bps before fees.

Wuthering Heights
27.8%
Polymarket 43%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 10.1%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $503 (5.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
19.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$503 (5.03x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 31¢ and selling on Polymarket at 32¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

The Devil Wears Prada 2
23.7%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.7%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 2.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 760 bps before fees.

Michael
20.5%
Polymarket 36%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 6.6%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 19%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $781 (7.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
12.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$781 (7.81x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 12.8¢.

Show 6 more outcomes
Fatherland
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Project Hail Mary
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Wild Horse Nine
18.5%
Polymarket 34%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 20¢ nets 1980 bps before fees.

Disclosure Day
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
10.6%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.3%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$39
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 4.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 560 bps before fees.

Digger
9.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.1%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Polymarket at 2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Indicative gap, prices are 5 min old: Werwulf asks 12¢ on Polymarket and bids 70¢ on Kalshi (5800 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • La Bola Negra
  • The Odyssey
  • The Black Ball

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list La Bola Negra for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Costume Design". La Bola Negra leads at 80%. Next is The Odyssey at 73.8%. $46K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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