The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Director

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$31K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Christopher Nolan 90.4%

Next is Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi at 89%. The venues differ most on Olivia Wilde (Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 78%), a 30-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Christopher Nolan
90.4%
Polymarket 89.3%polled, 56s agoKalshi 91.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 91.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
89.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.8¢
Sell Yes
86.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 84¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 91.8¢.

Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Javier Calvo
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Calvo
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Polymarket
Javier Ambrossi
81.5%
Polymarket 81.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Ambrossi
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Martin McDonagh
68.3%
Polymarket 65%polled, 56s agoKalshi 71.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 62¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 73¢.

Denis VilleneuveArb
67.4%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 56s agoKalshi 73%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 52¢ and selling on Kalshi at 68¢ nets 1600 bps before fees.

Nathan Fielder
56.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 67.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $148 (1.48x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nathan Fielder
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67.6¢
Sell Yes
45.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$148 (1.48x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Olivia WildeArb
55.9%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 56s agoKalshi 78%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$189
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 52¢ and selling on Kalshi at 72¢ nets 2000 bps before fees.

Jesse EisenbergArb
40.4%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 56s agoKalshi 53%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Eisenberg
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$618
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Eisenberg
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$823
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 27¢ and selling on Kalshi at 34¢ nets 700 bps before fees.

Phil Lord and Chris Miller
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Phil Lord and Chris Miller
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 25 more outcomes
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
30.3%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 56s agoKalshi 33%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 23¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 29¢.

Cristian Mungiu
20.8%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 56s agoKalshi 21%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 23¢.

James Gray
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Gray
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sian Heder
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sian Heder
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Simon Stone
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Simon Stone
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Peter Farrelly
12.8%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 56s agoKalshi 14%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Peter Farrelly
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$227
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Farrelly
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14¢.

Alejandro G. Iñárritu
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Christopher Miller
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christopher Miller
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Curry Barker
9.9%
Polymarket 9.9%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 11.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $893 (8.93x)
Polymarket
Contract
Curry Barker
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.2¢
Sell Yes
8.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$893 (8.93x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Paweł Pawlikowski
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paweł Pawlikowski
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
David Fincher
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Fincher
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Alejandro González Iñárritu
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alejandro González Iñárritu
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike Leigh
8.4%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 56s agoKalshi 14%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Leigh
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Leigh
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.5¢.

Phil Lord
8.2%
Polymarket 8.2%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Phil Lord
Last price
8.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tony Gilroy
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tony Gilroy
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$589
Trade this on Polymarket
Beth de Araujo
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beth de Araujo
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$911
Trade this on Polymarket
Na Hong-jin
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Na Hong-jin
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrew Haigh
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Haigh
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$161
Trade this on Polymarket
Danny Boyle
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danny Boyle
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Polymarket
Ben Affleck
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ben Affleck
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Janus Metz Pedersen
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Janus Metz Pedersen
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Polymarket
Joel Coen
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joel Coen
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Polymarket
Aaron Sorkin
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Sorkin
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Polymarket
Steven Spielberg
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steven Spielberg
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
James Ashcroft
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ashcroft
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$392
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Olivia Wilde on Polymarket at 52¢, sell on Kalshi at 72¢ (2000 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Christopher Nolan
  • Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi
  • Javier Calvo

Live prices for Christopher Nolan

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Director". Christopher Nolan leads at 90.4%. Next is Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi at 89%. $31K has traded across 35 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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