The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Drama Series

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

The Pitt 99%

Next is Paradise at 84%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
The Pitt
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 46s ago
Kalshi
Contract
The Pitt
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
84¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paradise
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paradise
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Diplomat
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Diplomat
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
House of the Dragon
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
House of the Dragon
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$134
Trade this on Kalshi
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$390
Trade this on Kalshi
Slow Horses
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Slow Horses
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bridgerton
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bridgerton
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dark Winds
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dark Winds
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Euphoria
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Euphoria
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
From
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
From
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Industry
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Industry
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Silo
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Silo
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Your Friends & Neighbors
35.5%
Kalshi 35.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Your Friends & Neighbors
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
For All Mankind
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
For All Mankind
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Vampire Lestat
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Vampire Lestat
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Pitt
  • Paradise
  • The Diplomat

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Drama Series". The Pitt leads at 99%. Next is Paradise at 84%. $6K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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