The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Editing

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$42K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 88.6%

Next is La Bola Negra at 80%. The venues differ most on The Invite (Polymarket 30.1%, Kalshi 60%), a 30-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The OdysseyArb
88.6%
Polymarket 84.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 90%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$243
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 86¢ and selling on Kalshi at 90¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

La Bola Negra
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Black Ball
79%
Polymarket 79%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Wild Horse Nine
64.8%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 70%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 60¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 68¢.

Dune: Part Three
54.1%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 53%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$178
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 50¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 62¢.

Project Hail Mary
50.9%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 55%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 35¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 49¢.

You Can See Everything
50%
Polymarket 48%polled, 18s agoKalshi 56%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 52¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 64¢.

The InviteArb
45%
Polymarket 30.1%polled, 18s agoKalshi 60%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 31.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $317 (3.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
30.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31.5¢
Sell Yes
28.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$317 (3.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 31.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 50¢ nets 1850 bps before fees.

The DebutArb
27.2%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 20%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 30¢ and selling on Polymarket at 34¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Fjord
25.3%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 20%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 30¢.

Show 6 more outcomes
I Play Rocky
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Social Reckoning
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Digger
18%
Polymarket 16%polled, 18s agoKalshi 20%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

Club Kid
17.3%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 20%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.

Elsinore
16.8%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 20%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Ink
16.8%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 18s agoKalshi 20%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ink
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy The Invite on Polymarket at 31.5¢, sell on Kalshi at 50¢ (1850 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • La Bola Negra
  • The Black Ball

Live prices for The Odyssey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Editing". The Odyssey leads at 88.6%. Next is La Bola Negra at 80%. $42K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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