The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Hair and Makeup

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Werwulf 90.5%

Next is The Odyssey at 83.5%. The venues differ most on Digger (Polymarket 70%, Kalshi 55%), a 15-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Werwulf
90.5%
Polymarket 89%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 95%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$199
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 90¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 92¢.

The Odyssey
83.5%
Polymarket 84%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$977
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 83¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 93¢.

Dune: Part Three
62.8%
Polymarket 63%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 62%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
63%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 62¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 69¢.

Digger
58.7%
Polymarket 70%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 55%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$45
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 52¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 70¢.

Wicker
57.6%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 49%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wicker
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$615
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wicker
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 51¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 69¢.

Clayface
47.4%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 49%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clayface
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Clayface
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 37¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Michael
28.6%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 32%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$72
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 23¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 27¢.

Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Kalshi
La Bola Negra
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Elsinore
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
ISG)
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
ISG)
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Bride
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Bride
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rose
23.1%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 25%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rose
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$101
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rose
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: Buying on Polymarket at 18¢ and selling on Kalshi at 20¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Madden
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Madden
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
I Love Boosters
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Polymarket
I Play Rocky
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Social Reckoning
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
UNABOMBER
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
UNABOMBER
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$261
Trade this on Polymarket
Cry to Heaven
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Indicative gap, prices are 1 h old: Rose asks 18¢ on Polymarket and bids 20¢ on Kalshi (200 bps). Recheck both venues before trading. See all spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Werwulf
  • The Odyssey
  • Dune: Part Three

Live prices for Werwulf

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Hair and Makeup". Werwulf leads at 90.5%. Next is The Odyssey at 83.5%. $16K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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