The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Original Screenplay

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$88K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Wild Horse Nine 79.5%

Next is Artificial at 70%. The venues differ most on Behemoth! (Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 33%), a 14-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Wild Horse NineArb
79.5%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 92.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 89.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$864
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 58¢ and selling on Kalshi at 80¢ nets 2200 bps before fees.

Artificial
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Artificial
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
The DebutArb
66.2%
Polymarket 24.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 85%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 89.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
24.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
20.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$924
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 28¢ and selling on Kalshi at 80¢ nets 5200 bps before fees.

Club KidArb
48%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 62%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 76%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 10.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $926 (9.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$926 (9.26x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 10.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 66¢ nets 5520 bps before fees.

FjordArb
39.1%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 46%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 53%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 38¢ nets 2910 bps before fees.

ObsessionArb
36.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 52%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 65%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$939
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$167
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 49¢ nets 4100 bps before fees.

Paper Tiger
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paper Tiger
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Behemoth!Arb
26.3%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 33%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 21¢ and selling on Kalshi at 23¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

I Play Rocky
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tender Loving Care
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tender Loving Care
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$220
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 15 more outcomes
Tony
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tony
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
ElsinoreArb
17.8%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 25%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$878
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$941
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 9.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 15¢ nets 550 bps before fees.

Misty Green
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Misty Green
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Drama
14%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Digger
11.6%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 15%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 10.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $943 (9.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$943 (9.43x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10.6¢.

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
11.6%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Josephine
9.2%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 15%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josephine
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Fatherland
5.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 7.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
7.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$735 (7.35x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Polymarket
The Invite
3.7%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$595
Trade this on Polymarket
The Odyssey
3.6%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Polymarket
A Place in Hell
2.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Place in Hell
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
A Place in Hell
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Polymarket
Forgotten Island
1.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
The Black Ball
1.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Club Kid on Polymarket at 10.8¢, sell on Kalshi at 66¢ (5520 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wild Horse Nine
  • Artificial
  • The Debut

Live prices for Wild Horse Nine

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Original Screenplay". Wild Horse Nine leads at 79.5%. Next is Artificial at 70%. $88K has traded across 25 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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