The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Picture

Closes
Jan 4, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$165K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 98.4%

Next is La Bola Negra at 91.1%. The venues differ most on Wild Horse Nine (Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 70%), a 22-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Odyssey
98.4%
Polymarket 97.1%polled, 35s agoKalshi 99%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
97.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.1¢
Sell Yes
95.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 98¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 99.1¢.

La Bola NegraArb
91.1%
Polymarket 95%polled, 35s agoKalshi 88%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 89¢ and selling on Polymarket at 94¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Dune: Part Three
84.5%
Polymarket 84%polled, 35s agoKalshi 86%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 83¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 87¢.

Wild Horse NineArb
80.8%
Polymarket 91.5%polled, 35s agoKalshi 70%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
91.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 80¢ and selling on Polymarket at 90¢ nets 1000 bps before fees.

The Debut
76%
Polymarket 80%polled, 35s agoKalshi 72%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 79¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 82¢.

Project Hail Mary
75%
Polymarket 77%polled, 35s agoKalshi 69%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$814
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 69¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 79¢.

You Can See EverythingArb
74.2%
Polymarket 72%polled, 35s agoKalshi 81%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 73¢ and selling on Kalshi at 81¢ nets 800 bps before fees.

The Invite
61.1%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 35s agoKalshi 69%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 50¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 59¢.

I Play RockyArb
44.1%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 35s agoKalshi 55%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 43¢ and selling on Kalshi at 45¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Club Kid
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 16 more outcomes
All of a Sudden
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Obsession
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elsinore
31.6%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 35s agoKalshi 32%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 30¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 35¢.

Possible Love
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Possible Love
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Being Heumann
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Being Heumann
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Tender Loving Care
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tender Loving Care
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
FjordArb
24.8%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 35s agoKalshi 15%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 20¢ and selling on Polymarket at 33¢ nets 1300 bps before fees.

The Adventures of Cliff Booth
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Digger
17.9%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 35s agoKalshi 16%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

Behemoth!
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Avengers: Doomsday
8.9%
Polymarket 8.9%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
7.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Disclosure Day
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fatherland
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Social Reckoning
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Drama
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$747
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Fjord on Kalshi at 20¢, sell on Polymarket at 33¢ (1300 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 21, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 4, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 21, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 4, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • La Bola Negra
  • Dune: Part Three

Live prices for The Odyssey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Picture". The Odyssey leads at 98.4%. Next is La Bola Negra at 91.1%. $165K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 4, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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