The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Production Design

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$35K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 82.4%

Next is La Bola Negra at 70%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The OdysseyArb
82.4%
Polymarket 78%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 66.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 99%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 78¢ and selling on Kalshi at 90¢ nets 1200 bps before fees.

La Bola Negra
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Black Ball
59.6%
Polymarket 96.5%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 3.4%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$648
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$425
Trade this on Polymarket
Dune: Part ThreeArb
49%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 16.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 70%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 18¢ and selling on Kalshi at 60¢ nets 4200 bps before fees.

Project Hail MaryArb
41.2%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 25s agoKalshi 60%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 50¢ nets 4980 bps before fees.

Wild Horse Nine
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
DiggerArb
31.8%
Polymarket 61%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 12.1%polled, 25s agoKalshi 42%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 21.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $474 (4.74x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
12.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$474 (4.74x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$388
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 45¢ and selling on Polymarket at 60¢ nets 1500 bps before fees.

WerwulfArb
30.9%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 4.2%polled, 25s agoKalshi 35%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$950
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$394
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 25¢ nets 1700 bps before fees.

BackroomsArb
22.6%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 25s agoKalshi 55%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$429
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$344
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 35¢ nets 3400 bps before fees.

Fatherland
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Ink
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Devil Wears Prada 2
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff BoothArb
16.9%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 25s agoKalshi 20%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$295
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 980 bps before fees.

Sense and SensibilityArb
16.7%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 20%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$297
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 920 bps before fees.

Wuthering HeightsArb
12.1%
Polymarket 16%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 25s agoKalshi 20%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 980 bps before fees.

WildwoodArb
12%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 25s agoPolymarket 10.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 25%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$503 (5.03x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 15¢ nets 1450 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Project Hail Mary on Polymarket at 0.2¢, sell on Kalshi at 50¢ (4980 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • La Bola Negra
  • The Black Ball

Live prices for The Odyssey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Production Design". The Odyssey leads at 82.4%. Next is La Bola Negra at 70%. $35K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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