The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Score

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$43K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 96.8%

Next is The Black Ball at 80.5%. The venues differ most on Project Hail Mary (Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 90%), a 39-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Odyssey
96.8%
Polymarket 90%polled, 25s agoKalshi 99%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$998
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
99%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
92¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 92¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 94¢.

The Black Ball
80.5%
Polymarket 80.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
La Bola Negra
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Project Hail MaryArb
78.3%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 90%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 56¢ and selling on Kalshi at 72¢ nets 1600 bps before fees.

Dune: Part Three
68.4%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 71%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 65¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 77¢.

Disclosure Day
66.3%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 64%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 56¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 74¢.

Behemoth!Arb
47.8%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 65%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 31¢ and selling on Kalshi at 55¢ nets 2400 bps before fees.

The Debut
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Wild Horse Nine
29.8%
Polymarket 28%polled, 25s agoKalshi 35%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$832
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 23¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 29¢.

Ink
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Digger
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ray Gunn
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ray Gunn
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
19.5%
Polymarket 14%polled, 25s agoKalshi 25%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Toy Story 5
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Werwulf
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
You Can See Everything
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Can See Everything
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$92
Trade this on Polymarket
The Social Reckoning
10.8%
Polymarket 6%polled, 25s agoKalshi 15.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Whalefall
7.8%
Polymarket 7.8%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Whalefall
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Drama
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Polymarket
The Mandalorian and Grogu
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Mandalorian and Grogu
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Behemoth! on Polymarket at 31¢, sell on Kalshi at 55¢ (2400 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • The Black Ball
  • La Bola Negra

Live prices for The Odyssey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Score". The Odyssey leads at 96.8%. Next is The Black Ball at 80.5%. $43K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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