The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$45K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Paul Giamatti 93%

Next is Paul W. Downs at 80%. The venues differ most on Colman Domingo (Polymarket 23%, Kalshi 49%), a 26-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Paul Giamatti
93%
Polymarket 93%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$673
Trade this on Polymarket
Paul W. Downs
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul W. Downs
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$782
Trade this on Kalshi
Stephen Root
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephen Root
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
John Leguizamo
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrew Garfield
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sam Rockwell
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$858
Trade this on Polymarket
Harrison Ford
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harrison Ford
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Guitarricadelafuente
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nick Offerman
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nick Offerman
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ebon Moss-Bachrach
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ebon Moss-Bachrach
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 30 more outcomes
Edward Norton
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Colman DomingoArb
42.5%
Polymarket 23%polled, 24s agoKalshi 49%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$409
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 26¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Ben Kingsley
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ben Kingsley
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brett Goldstein
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brett Goldstein
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Perfetti
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Perfetti
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Daniel Radcliffe
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Daniel Radcliffe
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Donald Faison
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donald Faison
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
John C. McGinley
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
John C. McGinley
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Urie
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Urie
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Timothy Simons
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Timothy Simons
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tyler James Williams
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler James Williams
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert Pattinson
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Goodman
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 16.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $606 (6.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.5¢
Sell Yes
15.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$606 (6.06x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Riz Ahmed
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Guy Pearce
12.7%
Polymarket 12.7%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 24.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $402 (4.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
12.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$402 (4.02x)
Volume
$473
Trade this on Polymarket
Steve Buscemi
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Fassbender
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 10.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.4¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$962 (9.62x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Skyler Gisondo
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
Channing Tatum
6.8%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket
James Ortiz
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$224
Trade this on Polymarket
Antonio Banderas
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antonio Banderas
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Jeremy Strong
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Himesh Patel
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Miles Teller
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Polymarket
Adam Scott
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Holland
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Charles Melton
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jesse Plemons
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert De Niro
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert De Niro
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Craig
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Colman Domingo on Polymarket at 26¢, sell on Kalshi at 30¢ (400 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Paul Giamatti
  • Paul W. Downs
  • Stephen Root

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Paul Giamatti for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series". Paul Giamatti leads at 93%. Next is Paul W. Downs at 80%. $45K has traded across 40 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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