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What the markets expect
Paul Giamatti 93%
Next is Patrick Ball at 79%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Paul Giamatti93%93%91¢ bid, 95¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed95¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $105 (1.05x)Paul Giamatti93%Polymarket 93%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Paul Giamatti
93%
93%
91¢ bid, 95¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
95¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Paul Giamatti
93%
Polymarket 93%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Paul Giamatti
- Last price
- 93%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 95¢
- Sell Yes
- 91¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $105 (1.05x)
- Volume
- $673
Patrick Ball79%Not listed79%61¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 2 h ago80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)Patrick Ball79%Kalshi 79%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Patrick Ball
79%
Not listed
79%
61¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Patrick Ball
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Patrick Ball
- Last price
- 79%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 61¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
- Volume
- $1K
John Leguizamo73.5%73.5%71¢ bid, 76¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed76¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $132 (1.32x)John Leguizamo73.5%Polymarket 73.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
John Leguizamo
73.5%
73.5%
71¢ bid, 76¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
76¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $132 (1.32x)
John Leguizamo
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- John Leguizamo
- Last price
- 73.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 76¢
- Sell Yes
- 71¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $132 (1.32x)
- Volume
- $3K
Andrew Garfield72.5%72.5%70¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed75¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $133 (1.33x)Andrew Garfield72.5%Polymarket 72.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Andrew Garfield
72.5%
72.5%
70¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
75¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Andrew Garfield
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Andrew Garfield
- Last price
- 72.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 70¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $2K
Sam Rockwell72.5%72.5%70¢ bid, 75¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed75¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $133 (1.33x)Sam Rockwell72.5%Polymarket 72.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Sam Rockwell
72.5%
72.5%
70¢ bid, 75¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
75¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Sam Rockwell
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sam Rockwell
- Last price
- 72.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 75¢
- Sell Yes
- 70¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $133 (1.33x)
- Volume
- $858
Shawn Hatosy70%Not listed70%60¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 2 h ago80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)Shawn Hatosy70%Kalshi 70%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Shawn Hatosy
70%
Not listed
70%
60¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Shawn Hatosy
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Shawn Hatosy
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 60¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
Guitarricadelafuente68%68%65¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed71¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $141 (1.41x)Guitarricadelafuente68%Polymarket 68%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Guitarricadelafuente
68%
68%
65¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
71¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Guitarricadelafuente
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Guitarricadelafuente
- Last price
- 68%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 65¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $2K
Gerran Howell60%Not listed60%50¢ bid, 70¢ askpolled, 2 h ago70¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $143 (1.43x)Gerran Howell60%Kalshi 60%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Gerran Howell
60%
Not listed
60%
50¢ bid, 70¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
70¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Gerran Howell
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gerran Howell
- Last price
- 60%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 70¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $143 (1.43x)
Edward Norton50.5%50.5%50¢ bid, 51¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed51¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $196 (1.96x)Edward Norton50.5%Polymarket 50.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Edward Norton
50.5%
50.5%
50¢ bid, 51¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
51¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Edward Norton
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Edward Norton
- Last price
- 50.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 51¢
- Sell Yes
- 50¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $196 (1.96x)
- Volume
- $1K
Jack Lowden45%Not listed45%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 2 h ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Jack Lowden45%Kalshi 45%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Jack Lowden
45%
Not listed
45%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Jack Lowden
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jack Lowden
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $131
Show 31 more outcomesHide 31 outcomes
Kit Harington45%Not listed45%35¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 2 h ago55¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $182 (1.82x)Kit Harington45%Kalshi 45%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kit Harington
45%
Not listed
45%
35¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
55¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kit Harington
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kit Harington
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
Assad Zaman35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 2 h ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Assad Zaman35%Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Assad Zaman
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Assad Zaman
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Assad Zaman
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Daniel Ings35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 2 h ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Daniel Ings35%Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Daniel Ings
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Daniel Ings
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Daniel Ings
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Dexter Sol Ansell35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 2 h ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Dexter Sol Ansell35%Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Dexter Sol Ansell
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Dexter Sol Ansell
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dexter Sol Ansell
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Ewan Mitchell35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 2 h ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Ewan Mitchell35%Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Ewan Mitchell
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Ewan Mitchell
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ewan Mitchell
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Finn Bennett35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 2 h ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Finn Bennett35%Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Finn Bennett
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Finn Bennett
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Finn Bennett
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
James Marsden35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 2 h ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)James Marsden35%Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
James Marsden
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
James Marsden
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- James Marsden
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Ken Leung35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 2 h ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Ken Leung35%Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Ken Leung
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Ken Leung
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ken Leung
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Matt Smith35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 2 h ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Matt Smith35%Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Matt Smith
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Matt Smith
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Matt Smith
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Max Minghella35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 2 h ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Max Minghella35%Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Max Minghella
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Max Minghella
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Max Minghella
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Sam Elliott35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 2 h ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Sam Elliott35%Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Sam Elliott
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Sam Elliott
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sam Elliott
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Robert Pattinson24.5%24.5%22¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed27¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $370 (3.70x)Robert Pattinson24.5%Polymarket 24.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Robert Pattinson
24.5%
24.5%
22¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
27¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Robert Pattinson
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Robert Pattinson
- Last price
- 24.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $1K
Colman Domingo23%23%20¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed26¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Colman Domingo23%Polymarket 23%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Colman Domingo
23%
23%
20¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
26¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Colman Domingo
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Colman Domingo
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $23
John Goodman16%16%15.4¢ bid, 16.5¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed16.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $606 (6.06x)John Goodman16%Polymarket 16%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $606 (6.06x)
John Goodman
16%
16%
15.4¢ bid, 16.5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
16.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $606 (6.06x)
John Goodman
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 16.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $606 (6.06x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- John Goodman
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 16.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 15.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $606 (6.06x)
- Volume
- $10K
Riz Ahmed13.5%13.5%13¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed14¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Riz Ahmed13.5%Polymarket 13.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Riz Ahmed
13.5%
13.5%
13¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
14¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Riz Ahmed
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Riz Ahmed
- Last price
- 13.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $2K
Guy Pearce12.7%12.7%0.4¢ bid, 24.9¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed24.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $402 (4.02x)Guy Pearce12.7%Polymarket 12.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 24.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $402 (4.02x)
Guy Pearce
12.7%
12.7%
0.4¢ bid, 24.9¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
24.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $402 (4.02x)
Guy Pearce
12.7%
Polymarket 12.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 24.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $402 (4.02x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Guy Pearce
- Last price
- 12.7%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 24.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $402 (4.02x)
- Volume
- $473
Steve Buscemi11%11%10¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Steve Buscemi11%Polymarket 11%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Steve Buscemi
11%
11%
10¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Steve Buscemi
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steve Buscemi
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $103
Michael Fassbender7.5%7.5%4.6¢ bid, 10.4¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed10.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $962 (9.62x)Michael Fassbender7.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Michael Fassbender
7.5%
7.5%
4.6¢ bid, 10.4¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
10.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Michael Fassbender
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Michael Fassbender
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 10.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $962 (9.62x)
- Volume
- $57
Skyler Gisondo7.5%7.5%6¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Skyler Gisondo7.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Skyler Gisondo
7.5%
7.5%
6¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Skyler Gisondo
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Skyler Gisondo
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $474
Channing Tatum6.8%6.8%5.2¢ bid, 8.3¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed8.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)Channing Tatum6.8%Polymarket 6.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Channing Tatum
6.8%
6.8%
5.2¢ bid, 8.3¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
8.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Channing Tatum
6.8%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Channing Tatum
- Last price
- 6.8%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,205 (12.0x)
- Volume
- $173
James Ortiz6.5%6.5%5¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)James Ortiz6.5%Polymarket 6.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
James Ortiz
6.5%
6.5%
5¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
James Ortiz
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- James Ortiz
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $224
Antonio Banderas5.6%5.6%1.3¢ bid, 9.8¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed9.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)Antonio Banderas5.6%Polymarket 5.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Antonio Banderas
5.6%
5.6%
1.3¢ bid, 9.8¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
9.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Antonio Banderas
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Antonio Banderas
- Last price
- 5.6%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,020 (10.2x)
Jeremy Strong5.3%5.3%3¢ bid, 7.6¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed7.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)Jeremy Strong5.3%Polymarket 5.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Jeremy Strong
5.3%
5.3%
3¢ bid, 7.6¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
7.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Jeremy Strong
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jeremy Strong
- Last price
- 5.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,316 (13.2x)
Himesh Patel4.9%4.9%2.2¢ bid, 7.6¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed7.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)Himesh Patel4.9%Polymarket 4.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Himesh Patel
4.9%
4.9%
2.2¢ bid, 7.6¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
7.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Himesh Patel
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Himesh Patel
- Last price
- 4.9%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,316 (13.2x)
- Volume
- $1K
Miles Teller4.9%4.9%2.6¢ bid, 7.1¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed7.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)Miles Teller4.9%Polymarket 4.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Miles Teller
4.9%
4.9%
2.6¢ bid, 7.1¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
7.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Miles Teller
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Miles Teller
- Last price
- 4.9%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 7.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,408 (14.1x)
- Volume
- $341
Adam Scott3.4%3.4%3.3¢ bid, 3.4¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed3.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)Adam Scott3.4%Polymarket 3.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Adam Scott
3.4%
3.4%
3.3¢ bid, 3.4¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
3.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Adam Scott
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Adam Scott
- Last price
- 3.4%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,941 (29.4x)
- Volume
- $3K
Tom Holland2.9%2.9%0.4¢ bid, 5.4¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed5.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)Tom Holland2.9%Polymarket 2.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Tom Holland
2.9%
2.9%
0.4¢ bid, 5.4¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
5.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Tom Holland
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tom Holland
- Last price
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,852 (18.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
Charles Melton2.8%2.8%1.1¢ bid, 4.5¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed4.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)Charles Melton2.8%Polymarket 2.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Charles Melton
2.8%
2.8%
1.1¢ bid, 4.5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
4.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Charles Melton
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Charles Melton
- Last price
- 2.8%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,222 (22.2x)
- Volume
- $2K
Jesse Plemons2.7%2.7%0.3¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Jesse Plemons2.7%Polymarket 2.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Jesse Plemons
2.7%
2.7%
0.3¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Jesse Plemons
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jesse Plemons
- Last price
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Robert De Niro2.5%2.5%1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Robert De Niro2.5%Polymarket 2.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Robert De Niro
2.5%
2.5%
1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Robert De Niro
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Robert De Niro
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $658
Daniel Craig1.4%1.4%1¢ bid, 1.7¢ askpolled, 2 h agoNot listed1.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)Daniel Craig1.4%Polymarket 1.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Daniel Craig
1.4%
1.4%
1¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask
polled, 2 h ago
Not listed
1.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Daniel Craig
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Daniel Craig
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 2 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,882 (58.8x)
- Volume
- $5K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Paul Giamatti
- Patrick Ball
- John Leguizamo
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Paul Giamatti for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series". Paul Giamatti leads at 93%. Next is Patrick Ball at 79%. $41K has traded across 41 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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