The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Supporting Actress

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$119K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Julianne Moore 95%

Next is Olivia Wilde at 68.5%. The venues differ most on Scarlett Johansson (Polymarket 3.3%, Kalshi 40%), a 37-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Julianne Moore
95%
Polymarket 95%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julianne Moore
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Olivia Wilde
68.5%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anne HathawayArb
58.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 87.5%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 4.4%polled, 30s agoKalshi 89.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$958
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anne Hathaway
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 80¢ nets 7330 bps before fees.

Amanda Seyfried
51%
Polymarket 30%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 58%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 32.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $306 (3.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32.7¢
Sell Yes
27.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$306 (3.06x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Amanda Seyfried
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Samantha MortonArb
49.6%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 69%polled, 30s agoKalshi 75%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Samantha Morton
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 65¢ nets 5610 bps before fees.

Renate Reinsve
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Renate Reinsve
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ruth Madeley
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ruth Madeley
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Polymarket
Virginie Efira
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Virginie Efira
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Penélope CruzArb
41.4%
Polymarket 10%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 75%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 75%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$618
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Penélope Cruz
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 65¢ nets 5730 bps before fees.

Inde Navarrette
39.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 1.1%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 79%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$766
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$486
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Inde Navarrette
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 33 more outcomes
Olivia ColmanArb
32.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 36.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 47%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$136
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$310
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Colman
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 43¢ nets 4210 bps before fees.

Sandra HüllerArb
28.7%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 23.5%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 59%polled, 30s agoKalshi 30%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$624
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sandra Hüller
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$610
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 30¢ and selling on Polymarket at 49¢ nets 1900 bps before fees.

Kate O'FlynnArb
26%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 39.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 32%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$320
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Kate O'Flynn
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kate O’Flynn
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 9.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 22¢ nets 1220 bps before fees.

Scarlett JohanssonArb
21.6%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 30s agoKalshi 40%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scarlett Johansson
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Scarlett Johansson
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 2550 bps before fees.

Wunmi Mosaku
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wunmi Mosaku
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Alice Bailey Johnson
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alice Bailey Johnson
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Colleen Camp
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colleen Camp
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Elizabeth Debicki
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elizabeth Debicki
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tao Okamoto
17.2%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 62%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tao Okamoto
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$654
Trade this on Polymarket
Mariana di GirolamoArb
17.1%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 29.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 20%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$493
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Mariana di Girolamo
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mariana Di Girolamo
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 710 bps before fees.

Merritt Wever
16.7%
Polymarket 13%polled, 30s agoKalshi 20.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Merritt Wever
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$223
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Merritt Wever
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14¢.

Parker Posey
14.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 19.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Parker Posey
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sophie OkonedoArb
13.4%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 30s agoKalshi 20.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sophie Okonedo
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sophie Okonedo
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 320 bps before fees.

Rosalind Eleazar
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosalind Eleazar
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Daisy Edgar-Jones
11.2%
Polymarket 11.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 20.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $478 (4.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daisy Edgar-Jones
Last price
11.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$478 (4.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Emily Blunt
11.2%
Polymarket 11.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 11.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $855 (8.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Emily Blunt
Last price
11.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.7¢
Sell Yes
10.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$855 (8.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Danielle Deadwyler
10.2%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 19.3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Danielle Deadwyler
Last price
19.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gemma ChanArb
10%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 9%polled, 30s agoKalshi 20.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$304
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gemma Chan
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 11¢ nets 1010 bps before fees.

Mikey Madison
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mikey Madison
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$556
Trade this on Polymarket
Zendaya
8.4%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 14.5%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 4.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$384
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$732
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Zendaya
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket
Michelle Williams
6.4%
Polymarket 6.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Williams
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$898
Trade this on Polymarket
Natalie Portman
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natalie Portman
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$813
Trade this on Polymarket
Cynthia Erivo
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cynthia Erivo
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michelle Monaghan
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michelle Monaghan
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Joan Collins
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joan Collins
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dakota Johnson
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dakota Johnson
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$302
Trade this on Polymarket
Laura Linney
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laura Linney
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$301
Trade this on Polymarket
Shailene Woodley
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shailene Woodley
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$453
Trade this on Polymarket
Isabella Rossellini
2.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Isabella Rossellini
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$140
Trade this on Polymarket
Betty Gilpin
1.9%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 6.8%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Betty Gilpin
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.2¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$893 (8.93x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
Lily Gladstone
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lily Gladstone
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$673
Trade this on Polymarket
Margaret Qualley
1.7%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 3.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$427
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Margaret Qualley
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$97
Trade this on Polymarket
Kirsten Dunst
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kirsten Dunst
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$976
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Anne Hathaway on Polymarket at 6.7¢, sell on Kalshi at 80¢ (7330 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Julianne Moore
  • Olivia Wilde
  • Anne Hathaway

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Julianne Moore for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Supporting Actress". Julianne Moore leads at 95%. Next is Olivia Wilde at 68.5%. $119K has traded across 43 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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