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What the markets expect
Anne Hathaway 88%
Next is Kate O'Flynn at 77.5%. The venues differ most on Kate O'Flynn (Polymarket 55%, Kalshi 85%), a 30-point gap.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Anne Hathaway88%88%87¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed89¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Anne Hathaway88%Polymarket 88%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Anne Hathaway
88%
88%
87¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
89¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Anne Hathaway
88%
Polymarket 88%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Anne Hathaway
- Last price
- 88%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 87¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $9K
Kate O'FlynnKalshi: “Kate O’Flynn”77.5%55%25¢ bid, 85¢ askpolled, 20s ago85%84¢ bid, 85¢ askpolled, 20s ago85¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $118 (1.18x)Kate O'Flynn77.5%Polymarket 55%polled, 20s agoKalshi 85%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kate O'Flynn
Kalshi: “Kate O’Flynn”
77.5%
55%
25¢ bid, 85¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
85%
84¢ bid, 85¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
85¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kate O'Flynn
77.5%
Polymarket 55%polled, 20s agoKalshi 85%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kate O'Flynn
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
- Volume
- $201
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kate O’Flynn
- Last price
- 85%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 84¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
- Volume
- $3K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 84¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 85¢.
Penélope Cruz75%75%73¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed77¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $130 (1.30x)Penélope Cruz75%Polymarket 75%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Penélope Cruz
75%
75%
73¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
77¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Penélope Cruz
75%
Polymarket 75%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Penélope Cruz
- Last price
- 75%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 73¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $6K
Hannah Einbinder70%Not listed70%60¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 20s ago80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)Hannah Einbinder70%Kalshi 70%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Hannah Einbinder
70%
Not listed
70%
60¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Hannah Einbinder
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hannah Einbinder
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 60¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
Janelle James70%Not listed70%60¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 20s ago80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)Janelle James70%Kalshi 70%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Janelle James
70%
Not listed
70%
60¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Janelle James
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Janelle James
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 60¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
Samantha Morton67%67%63¢ bid, 71¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed71¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $141 (1.41x)Samantha Morton67%Polymarket 67%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Samantha Morton
67%
67%
63¢ bid, 71¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
71¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Samantha Morton
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Samantha Morton
- Last price
- 67%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 71¢
- Sell Yes
- 63¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $141 (1.41x)
- Volume
- $1K
Tao Okamoto62%62%60¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed64¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $156 (1.56x)Tao Okamoto62%Polymarket 62%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Tao Okamoto
62%
62%
60¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
64¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Tao Okamoto
62%
Polymarket 62%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tao Okamoto
- Last price
- 62%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 60¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $654
Amanda Seyfried58%58%57¢ bid, 59¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed59¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $169 (1.69x)Amanda Seyfried58%Polymarket 58%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Amanda Seyfried
58%
58%
57¢ bid, 59¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
59¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Amanda Seyfried
58%
Polymarket 58%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Amanda Seyfried
- Last price
- 58%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 59¢
- Sell Yes
- 57¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $169 (1.69x)
- Volume
- $8K
Hannah Waddingham45%Not listed45%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 20s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Hannah Waddingham45%Kalshi 45%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Hannah Waddingham
45%
Not listed
45%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Hannah Waddingham
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hannah Waddingham
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
- Volume
- $301
Olivia Colman36.5%36.5%34¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed39¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Olivia Colman36.5%Polymarket 36.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Olivia Colman
36.5%
36.5%
34¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
39¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Olivia Colman
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Olivia Colman
- Last price
- 36.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $310
Show 21 more outcomesHide 21 outcomes
Dale Dickey35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 20s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Dale Dickey35%Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Dale Dickey
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Dale Dickey
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dale Dickey
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Jessica Williams35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 20s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Jessica Williams35%Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Jessica Williams
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Jessica Williams
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jessica Williams
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Juno Temple35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 20s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Juno Temple35%Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Juno Temple
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Juno Temple
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Juno Temple
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Justine Lupe35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 20s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Justine Lupe35%Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Justine Lupe
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Justine Lupe
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Justine Lupe
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Kerri Kenney-Silver35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 20s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Kerri Kenney-Silver35%Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kerri Kenney-Silver
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kerri Kenney-Silver
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kerri Kenney-Silver
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Laurie Metcalf35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 20s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Laurie Metcalf35%Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Laurie Metcalf
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Laurie Metcalf
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Laurie Metcalf
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Liza Colón-Zayas35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 20s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Liza Colón-Zayas35%Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Liza Colón-Zayas
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Liza Colón-Zayas
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Liza Colón-Zayas
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Megan Stalter35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 20s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Megan Stalter35%Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Megan Stalter
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Megan Stalter
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Megan Stalter
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Michelle Pfeiffer35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 20s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Michelle Pfeiffer35%Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Michelle Pfeiffer
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Michelle Pfeiffer
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michelle Pfeiffer
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Sheryl Lee Ralph35%Not listed35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 20s ago45¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $222 (2.22x)Sheryl Lee Ralph35%Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Sheryl Lee Ralph
35%
Not listed
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
45¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Sheryl Lee Ralph
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sheryl Lee Ralph
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Mariana di Girolamo29.5%29.5%29¢ bid, 30¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed30¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $333 (3.33x)Mariana di Girolamo29.5%Polymarket 29.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Mariana di Girolamo
29.5%
29.5%
29¢ bid, 30¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
30¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Mariana di Girolamo
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mariana di Girolamo
- Last price
- 29.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 30¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $333 (3.33x)
- Volume
- $1K
Danielle Deadwyler28.1%21.3%1.5¢ bid, 41¢ askpolled, 20s ago35%25¢ bid, 45¢ askpolled, 20s ago41¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $244 (2.44x)Danielle Deadwyler28.1%Polymarket 21.3%polled, 20s agoKalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Danielle Deadwyler
28.1%
21.3%
1.5¢ bid, 41¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
35%
25¢ bid, 45¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
41¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Danielle Deadwyler
28.1%
Polymarket 21.3%polled, 20s agoKalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Danielle Deadwyler
- Last price
- 21.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 41¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Danielle Deadwyler
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 45¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $222 (2.22x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 25¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 41¢.
Sandra Hüller23.5%23.5%22¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed25¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Sandra Hüller23.5%Polymarket 23.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Sandra Hüller
23.5%
23.5%
22¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
25¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Sandra Hüller
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sandra Hüller
- Last price
- 23.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $468
Parker Posey19.5%19.5%18¢ bid, 21¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed21¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $476 (4.76x)Parker Posey19.5%Polymarket 19.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Parker Posey
19.5%
19.5%
18¢ bid, 21¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
21¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Parker Posey
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Parker Posey
- Last price
- 19.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 21¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $476 (4.76x)
- Volume
- $11K
Zendaya15.5%15.5%14¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Zendaya15.5%Polymarket 15.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Zendaya
15.5%
15.5%
14¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Zendaya
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Zendaya
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $732
Merritt Wever13%13%12¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed14¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Merritt Wever13%Polymarket 13%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Merritt Wever
13%
13%
12¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
14¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Merritt Wever
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Merritt Wever
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $223
Betty Gilpin9.2%9.2%5.3¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Betty Gilpin9.2%Polymarket 9.2%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Betty Gilpin
9.2%
9.2%
5.3¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
13¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Betty Gilpin
9.2%
Polymarket 9.2%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Betty Gilpin
- Last price
- 9.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $6
Gemma Chan9%9%8¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed10¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Gemma Chan9%Polymarket 9%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Gemma Chan
9%
9%
8¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
10¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Gemma Chan
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gemma Chan
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $81
Isabella Rossellini5.5%5.5%4¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Isabella Rossellini5.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Isabella Rossellini
5.5%
5.5%
4¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Isabella Rossellini
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Isabella Rossellini
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $140
Margaret Qualley3.5%3.5%0.5¢ bid, 6.5¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed6.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)Margaret Qualley3.5%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Margaret Qualley
3.5%
3.5%
0.5¢ bid, 6.5¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
6.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Margaret Qualley
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Margaret Qualley
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,538 (15.4x)
- Volume
- $97
Inde Navarrette1.1%1.1%1¢ bid, 1.2¢ askpolled, 20s agoNot listed1.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)Inde Navarrette1.1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Inde Navarrette
1.1%
1.1%
1¢ bid, 1.2¢ ask
polled, 20s ago
Not listed
1.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Inde Navarrette
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Inde Navarrette
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $8,333 (83.3x)
- Volume
- $486
No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads
Mostly the same bet: one difference
Where they differ
- Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Anne Hathaway
- Kate O'Flynn
- Penélope Cruz
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Anne Hathaway for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series". Anne Hathaway leads at 88%. Next is Kate O'Flynn at 77.5%. $44K has traded across 31 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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