The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Visual Effects

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$34K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Dune: Part Three 73.5%

Next is Project Hail Mary at 65.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Dune: Part ThreeArb
73.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 78.4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 89.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
78.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
95.8¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 53¢ and selling on Kalshi at 80¢ nets 2700 bps before fees.

Project Hail MaryArb
65.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 84%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 87%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 26¢ and selling on Kalshi at 77¢ nets 5100 bps before fees.

The OdysseyArb
61.8%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 80.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$660
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 18¢ and selling on Kalshi at 78¢ nets 6000 bps before fees.

Godzilla Minus ZeroArb
48.8%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 90.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Godzilla Minus Zero
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$742
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Godzilla Minus Zero
Last price
90.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
91.6¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$376
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Godzilla Minus Zero
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 50¢ nets 4260 bps before fees.

Disclosure Day
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Mandalorian and Grogu
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Mandalorian and Grogu
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Avengers: DoomsdayArb
30.7%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 41%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$591
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 38¢ nets 3230 bps before fees.

Werwulf
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Spider-Man: Brand New DayArb
24.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 38.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$461
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$805
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 25¢ nets 2410 bps before fees.

The Sheep Detectives
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Sheep Detectives
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Whalefall
15.5%
Kalshi 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Whalefall
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Clayface
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clayface
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The End of Oak Street
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
The End of Oak Street
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Wildwood
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Supergirl
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supergirl
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy The Odyssey on Polymarket at 18¢, sell on Kalshi at 78¢ (6000 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dune: Part Three
  • Project Hail Mary
  • The Odyssey

Live prices for Dune: Part Three

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Visual Effects". Dune: Part Three leads at 73.5%. Next is Project Hail Mary at 65.5%. $34K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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