The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Awards: Best Actor in a Comedy Series

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$83K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
6 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Matthew Rhys 67%

Next is Jeremy Allen White at 6.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Matthew Rhys 67%Jeremy Allen White 6.6%Tim Allen 6.6%Steve Carell 3.8%Adam Brody 2.8%11 others 13.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Matthew Rhys
67%
Kalshi 71%(67% fair)polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matthew Rhys
Last price
71%
Fair, margin removed
67%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeremy Allen White
6.6%
Kalshi 7%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Allen White
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tim Allen
6.6%
Kalshi 7%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Allen
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Carell
3.8%
Kalshi 4%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Carell
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Kalshi
Adam Brody
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Brody
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Kalshi
Jason Segel
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jason Segel
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Kalshi
Jason Sudeikis
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jason Sudeikis
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Kalshi
David Alan Grier
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Alan Grier
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Kalshi
Denis Leary
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denis Leary
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Charles
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Charles
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Max Burkholder
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Max Burkholder
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tracy Morgan
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tracy Morgan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Kalshi
Utkarsh Ambudkar
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Utkarsh Ambudkar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Kalshi
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Kalshi
Zach Braff
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zach Braff
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$942
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Matthew Rhys
  • Jeremy Allen White
  • Tim Allen

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Awards: Best Actor in a Comedy Series". Matthew Rhys leads at 67%. Next is Jeremy Allen White at 6.6%. $83K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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