The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Awards: Best Adapted Screenplay

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$100K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Black Ball 56.8%

Next is La Bola Negra at 41%. The venues differ most on The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (Polymarket 30.8%, Kalshi 2%), a 29-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Black Ball
56.8%
Polymarket 47%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 86%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$778
Trade this on Polymarket
La Bola Negra
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The InviteArb
40.7%
Polymarket 21%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 93.4%polled, 30s agoKalshi 26%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
93.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.8¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$569
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Invite
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 26¢ and selling on Polymarket at 90¢ nets 6400 bps before fees.

The OdysseyArb
39.8%
Polymarket 22%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 88%polled, 30s agoKalshi 25%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 25¢ and selling on Polymarket at 85¢ nets 6000 bps before fees.

Project Hail MaryArb
25.4%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 71.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$772
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 59¢ nets 5700 bps before fees.

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff BoothArb
23.4%
Polymarket 30.8%polled, 30s agoKalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
30.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34.6¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$289 (2.89x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 27¢ nets 2500 bps before fees.

All of a SuddenArb
17.4%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 60%polled, 30s agoKalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$979
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$739
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
All of a Sudden
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 59¢ nets 5700 bps before fees.

InkArb
9.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 19.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ink
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ink
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Dune: Part ThreeArb
8.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 29%polled, 30s agoKalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 27¢ nets 2500 bps before fees.

ClarissaArb
7.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 16.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Clarissa
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11¢ nets 900 bps before fees.

Show 11 more outcomes
WildwoodArb
2.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 3¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Toy Story 5
2.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 3.1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$543
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Toy Story 5
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Social Reckoning
2.2%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 3.6%polled, 30s agoKalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$465
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$386
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

The Whisper Man
2.1%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 4.1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Whisper Man
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$371
Trade this on Polymarket
Being Heumann
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Being Heumann
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cry to HeavenArb
2%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 4%polled, 30s agoKalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Cry to Heaven
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Saturn Return
1.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoPolymarket 4.9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Saturn Return
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Polymarket
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$754
Trade this on Polymarket
Fatherland
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Primetime
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Primetime
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy The Invite on Kalshi at 26¢, sell on Polymarket at 90¢ (6400 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Black Ball
  • La Bola Negra
  • The Invite

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list The Black Ball for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Awards: Best Adapted Screenplay". The Black Ball leads at 56.8%. Next is La Bola Negra at 41%. $100K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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