The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Awards: Best Costume Design

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$46K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Black Ball 66.8%

Next is The Odyssey at 62.3%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The Black Ball
66.8%
Polymarket 81.8%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 21.7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 27.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $365 (3.65x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
81.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84.7¢
Sell Yes
78.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
21.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27.4¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$365 (3.65x)
Volume
$496
Trade this on Polymarket
The OdysseyArb
62.3%
Polymarket 84%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 56.5%polled, 41s agoKalshi 53%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 53¢ and selling on Polymarket at 79¢ nets 2600 bps before fees.

Sense and SensibilityArb
28.9%
Polymarket 62%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 9.3%polled, 41s agoKalshi 5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
9.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 11¢ and selling on Polymarket at 45¢ nets 3400 bps before fees.

The Devil Wears Prada 2Arb
25.9%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 1.7%polled, 41s agoKalshi 5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 36¢ nets 3100 bps before fees.

I Love BoostersArb
25.1%
Polymarket 55%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 2.9%polled, 41s agoKalshi 14%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
I Love Boosters
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 14¢ and selling on Polymarket at 37¢ nets 2300 bps before fees.

Wuthering HeightsArb
20%
Polymarket 50%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 7.1%polled, 41s agoKalshi 3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$725 (7.25x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

WerwulfArb
19.5%
Polymarket 45%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 8.9%polled, 41s agoKalshi 4.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$108
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 35¢ nets 2700 bps before fees.

MichaelArb
17.4%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 11.6%polled, 41s agoKalshi 3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Michael
Last price
11.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Michael
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 17¢ nets 1200 bps before fees.

Dune: Part Three
17.3%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 15.5%polled, 41s agoKalshi 7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.4¢
Sell Yes
10.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$490 (4.90x)
Volume
$233
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Wild Horse NineArb
12.4%
Polymarket 34%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 41s agoKalshi 3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$104
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 13¢ nets 800 bps before fees.

Show 7 more outcomes
DiggerArb
6.2%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 1.1%polled, 41s agoKalshi 3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 12¢ nets 700 bps before fees.

La Bola Negra
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Kalshi
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff BoothArb
5.1%
Polymarket 11%polled, 41s agoPolymarket 1.3%polled, 41s agoKalshi 3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$39
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 500 bps before fees.

Disclosure Day
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Fatherland
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Project Hail Mary
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Sense and Sensibility on Kalshi at 11¢, sell on Polymarket at 45¢ (3400 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Black Ball
  • The Odyssey
  • Sense and Sensibility

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list The Black Ball for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Awards: Best Costume Design". The Black Ball leads at 66.8%. Next is The Odyssey at 62.3%. $46K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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