The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Awards: Best Director

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$142K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Christopher Nolan 65.1%

Next is Denis Villeneuve at 10.4%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Christopher Nolan 65.1%Denis Villeneuve 10.4%Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi 4.7%Alejandro G. Iñárritu 1.9%Cristian Mungiu 1.9%11 others 16%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Christopher Nolan
65.1%
Kalshi 69%(65.1% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
69%
Fair, margin removed
65.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Denis Villeneuve
10.4%
Kalshi 11%(10.4% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denis Villeneuve
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi
4.7%
Kalshi 5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cristian Mungiu
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cristian Mungiu
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jesse Eisenberg
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jesse Eisenberg
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Martin McDonagh
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Martin McDonagh
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Olivia Wilde
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Olivia Wilde
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Phil Lord and Chris Miller
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Phil Lord and Chris Miller
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Tie
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
James Gray
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Gray
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Leigh
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Leigh
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Peter Farrelly
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Peter Farrelly
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sian Heder
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sian Heder
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
Simon Stone
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Simon Stone
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Christopher Nolan
  • Denis Villeneuve
  • Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Awards: Best Director". Christopher Nolan leads at 65.1%. Next is Denis Villeneuve at 10.4%. $142K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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