The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Awards: Best Drama Series

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

The Pitt 58.4%

Next is A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms at 2.9%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

The Pitt 58.4%A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms 2.9%Bridgerton 2.9%Dark Winds 2.9%Euphoria 2.9%11 others 30%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
The Pitt
58.4%
Kalshi 71%(58.4% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Pitt
Last price
71%
Fair, margin removed
58.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
2.9%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bridgerton
2.9%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bridgerton
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dark Winds
2.9%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dark Winds
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Euphoria
2.9%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Euphoria
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
From
2.9%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
From
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
House of the Dragon
2.9%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
House of the Dragon
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Industry
2.9%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Industry
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Paradise
2.9%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paradise
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Silo
2.9%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Silo
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Slow Horses
2.9%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Slow Horses
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Diplomat
2.9%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Diplomat
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Vampire Lestat
2.9%
Kalshi 3.5%(2.9% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Vampire Lestat
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
For All Mankind
2.4%
Kalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
For All Mankind
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Your Friends & Neighbors
2.4%
Kalshi 3%(2.5% fair)polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Your Friends & Neighbors
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
2%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Pitt
  • A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
  • Bridgerton

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Awards: Best Drama Series". The Pitt leads at 58.4%. Next is A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms at 2.9%. $1K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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