The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Awards: Best Original Screenplay

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$118K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Wild Horse Nine 62.3%

Next is The Debut at 39.1%. The venues differ most on Behemoth! (Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 2%), a 20-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Wild Horse NineArb
62.3%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 93%polled, 40s agoKalshi 43%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$859
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 44¢ and selling on Polymarket at 92¢ nets 4800 bps before fees.

The DebutArb
39.1%
Polymarket 24%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 84.5%polled, 40s agoKalshi 24%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29.4¢
Sell Yes
18.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$340 (3.40x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Debut
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$924
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Debut
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 24¢ and selling on Polymarket at 81¢ nets 5700 bps before fees.

Club KidArb
22.5%
Polymarket 7%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 61%polled, 40s agoKalshi 6%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$763 (7.63x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
61%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Club Kid
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 53¢ nets 4700 bps before fees.

ObsessionArb
19.2%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 51.5%polled, 40s agoKalshi 2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$939
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Obsession
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Obsession
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$665
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 42¢ nets 4000 bps before fees.

FjordArb
15.3%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 46%polled, 40s agoKalshi 2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.6¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$862 (8.62x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Fjord
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fjord
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$588
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 44¢ nets 4200 bps before fees.

Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
14.2%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 18%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Drama
14%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 17.5%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Drama
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Behemoth!Arb
10.8%
Polymarket 21.5%polled, 40s agoKalshi 2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
21.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Behemoth!
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$629
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 20¢ nets 1800 bps before fees.

ElsinoreArb
9.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 20.5%polled, 40s agoKalshi 2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$878
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elsinore
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$588
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 18¢ nets 1600 bps before fees.

DiggerArb
8.2%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 14%polled, 40s agoKalshi 2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 13¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

Show 16 more outcomes
JosephineArb
4%
Polymarket 3%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 11%polled, 40s agoKalshi 1%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$59
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Josephine
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josephine
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 8¢ nets 600 bps before fees.

The Invite
3.7%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 3.9%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Invite
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$595
Trade this on Polymarket
The Odyssey
3.6%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 4%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$81
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Artificial
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Artificial
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$631
Trade this on Polymarket
Fatherland
2.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 3.3%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Polymarket
Tender Loving Care
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tender Loving Care
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$588
Trade this on Kalshi
Tony
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tony
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$588
Trade this on Kalshi
The Black Ball
1.8%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 2.1%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Forgotten Island
1.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 3.1%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Forgotten Island
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Polymarket
I Play Rocky
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Play Rocky
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Misty Green
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Misty Green
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paper Tiger
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paper Tiger
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
A Place in Hell
1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 40s agoPolymarket 1.1%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
A Place in Hell
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
A Place in Hell
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$531
Trade this on Polymarket
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy The Debut on Kalshi at 24¢, sell on Polymarket at 81¢ (5700 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wild Horse Nine
  • The Debut
  • Club Kid

Live prices for Wild Horse Nine

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Awards: Best Original Screenplay". Wild Horse Nine leads at 62.3%. Next is The Debut at 39.1%. $118K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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