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What the markets expect
The Odyssey 60.4%
Next is La Bola Negra at 15.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
The Odyssey60.4%58%60.4% fair58¢ bid, 63¢ askpolled, 1 min ago63¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $159 (1.59x)The Odyssey60.4%Kalshi 58%(60.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
The Odyssey
60.4%
58%
60.4% fair
58¢ bid, 63¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
63¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $159 (1.59x)
The Odyssey
60.4%
Kalshi 58%(60.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Odyssey
- Last price
- 58%
- Fair, margin removed
- 60.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 63¢
- Sell Yes
- 58¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $159 (1.59x)
- Volume
- $16K
La Bola Negra15.6%15%15.6% fair12¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 1 min ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)La Bola Negra15.6%Kalshi 15%(15.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
La Bola Negra
15.6%
15%
15.6% fair
12¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
La Bola Negra
15.6%
Kalshi 15%(15.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- La Bola Negra
- Last price
- 15%
- Fair, margin removed
- 15.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $5K
Dune: Part Three7.3%7%6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Dune: Part Three7.3%Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Dune: Part Three
7.3%
7%
6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Dune: Part Three
7.3%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dune: Part Three
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $13K
Wild Horse Nine3.1%3%2¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Wild Horse Nine3.1%Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Wild Horse Nine
3.1%
3%
2¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Wild Horse Nine
3.1%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wild Horse Nine
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $4K
Project Hail Mary2.1%2%— bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Project Hail Mary2.1%Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Project Hail Mary
2.1%
2%
— bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Project Hail Mary
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Project Hail Mary
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $6K
Being Heumann1.1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Being Heumann1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Being Heumann
1.1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Being Heumann
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Being Heumann
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Club Kid1.1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Club Kid1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Club Kid
1.1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Club Kid
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Club Kid
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Digger1.1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Digger1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Digger
1.1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Digger
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Digger
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Elsinore1.1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Elsinore1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Elsinore
1.1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Elsinore
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Elsinore
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Fjord1.1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Fjord1.1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Fjord
1.1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Fjord
1.1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fjord
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Show 6 more outcomesHide 6 outcomes
I Play Rocky1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)I Play Rocky1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
I Play Rocky
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
I Play Rocky
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- I Play Rocky
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Possible Love1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Possible Love1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Possible Love
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Possible Love
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Possible Love
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Tender Loving Care1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Tender Loving Care1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tender Loving Care
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tender Loving Care
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tender Loving Care
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
The Debut1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)The Debut1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Debut
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Debut
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Debut
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
The Invite1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)The Invite1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Invite
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
The Invite
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- The Invite
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Tie1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Tie1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tie
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tie
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- The Odyssey
- La Bola Negra
- Dune: Part Three
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Awards: Best Picture". The Odyssey leads at 60.4%. Next is La Bola Negra at 15.6%. $78K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 4, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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