The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Awards: Best Production Design

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$81K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 66.1%

Next is The Black Ball at 59.4%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
The OdysseyArb
66.1%
Polymarket 77.5%polled, 32s agoPolymarket 71%polled, 32s agoKalshi 58%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
77.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 58¢ and selling on Polymarket at 77¢ nets 1900 bps before fees.

The Black Ball
59.4%
Polymarket 96.4%polled, 32s agoPolymarket 3.2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
96.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
93.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$648
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Black Ball
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$425
Trade this on Polymarket
Dune: Part ThreeArb
31.1%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 32s agoPolymarket 17.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 14%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 19¢ and selling on Polymarket at 63¢ nets 4400 bps before fees.

Project Hail MaryArb
28.6%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 32s agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 32s agoKalshi 12%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 12¢ and selling on Polymarket at 58¢ nets 4600 bps before fees.

DiggerArb
20.2%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 32s agoPolymarket 12%polled, 32s agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Digger
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Digger
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 58¢ nets 5400 bps before fees.

WerwulfArb
17%
Polymarket 56.5%polled, 32s agoPolymarket 4.1%polled, 32s agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
56.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$950
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$394
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 51¢ nets 4700 bps before fees.

Sense and SensibilityArb
10.3%
Polymarket 37%polled, 32s agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 32s agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$793
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$297
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sense and Sensibility
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 24¢ nets 2000 bps before fees.

La Bola Negra
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
La Bola Negra
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff BoothArb
7.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 32s agoPolymarket 6.4%polled, 32s agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$919
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$552
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 19¢ nets 1500 bps before fees.

BackroomsArb
5.5%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 32s agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 32s agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$429
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Backrooms
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 16¢ nets 1400 bps before fees.

Show 7 more outcomes
Wuthering HeightsArb
5.4%
Polymarket 12%polled, 32s agoPolymarket 0.2%polled, 32s agoKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 8¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Wildwood
4.5%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 32s agoPolymarket 6.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$525
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Fatherland
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fatherland
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ink
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ink
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Devil Wears Prada 2
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Devil Wears Prada 2
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wild Horse Nine
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Digger on Kalshi at 4¢, sell on Polymarket at 58¢ (5400 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • The Black Ball
  • Dune: Part Three

Live prices for The Odyssey

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Awards: Best Production Design". The Odyssey leads at 66.1%. Next is The Black Ball at 59.4%. $81K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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