The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Awards: Best Supporting Actor

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$116K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Guitarricadelafuente 50.1%

Next is Paul Giamatti at 42.8%. The venues differ most on Antonio Banderas (Polymarket 7.5%, Kalshi 1%), a 6.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Guitarricadelafuente
50.1%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 65.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.9¢
Sell Yes
10.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$917 (9.17x)
Volume
$901
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Paul GiamattiArb
42.8%
Polymarket 23%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 93%polled, 52s agoKalshi 31%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$673
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Giamatti
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 38¢ and selling on Polymarket at 91¢ nets 5300 bps before fees.

John LeguizamoArb
39%
Polymarket 4%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 72.5%polled, 52s agoKalshi 7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Leguizamo
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 72¢ nets 6500 bps before fees.

Andrew GarfieldArb
35.1%
Polymarket 30%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 65%polled, 52s agoKalshi 17%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Garfield
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 19¢ and selling on Polymarket at 48¢ nets 2900 bps before fees.

Sam RockwellArb
25.5%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 73.5%polled, 52s agoKalshi 12%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$858
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 18¢ and selling on Polymarket at 72¢ nets 5400 bps before fees.

Edward NortonArb
14.7%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 43%polled, 52s agoKalshi 6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$922
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Edward Norton
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 25¢ nets 1800 bps before fees.

Robert PattinsonArb
12.2%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 33.5%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 17¢ nets 1500 bps before fees.

John GoodmanArb
7.8%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 14.3%polled, 52s agoKalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
14.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.4¢
Sell Yes
13.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$649 (6.49x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
John Goodman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 13.1¢ nets 1110 bps before fees.

Riz AhmedArb
7.6%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 13.5%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Riz Ahmed
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 13¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

Skyler Gisondo
5.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 7.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Skyler Gisondo
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 20 more outcomes
Colman DomingoArb
5.6%
Polymarket 1%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 19.5%polled, 52s agoKalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$296
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Colman Domingo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$428
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 16¢ nets 1400 bps before fees.

Jeremy StrongArb
5.2%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 13.2%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
13.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23.8¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$420 (4.20x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 140 bps before fees.

Miles Teller
5.1%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 6.8%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Miles Teller
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Polymarket
Antonio BanderasArb
4.2%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 52s agoKalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antonio Banderas
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Antonio Banderas
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$373
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

Steve BuscemiArb
4%
Polymarket 1%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 11%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$103
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Buscemi
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 800 bps before fees.

James Ortiz
3.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$172
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
James Ortiz
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$224
Trade this on Polymarket
Jesse Plemons
3.3%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 2.7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$175
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jesse Plemons
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Himesh Patel
3%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 3.7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Himesh Patel
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Channing TatumArb
2.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 6.8%polled, 52s agoKalshi 2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Channing Tatum
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5.2¢ nets 320 bps before fees.

Adam Scott
2.7%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 3.4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Scott
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Fassbender
2.7%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 7.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Fassbender
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.2¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$893 (8.93x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Guy Pearce
2.4%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 4.3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$714
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Guy Pearce
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$473
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Holland
2.4%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$924
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Holland
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert De Niro
2.1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 2.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert De Niro
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$154
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Robert De Niro
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$658
Trade this on Polymarket
Adam Driver
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Kalshi
Mark Ruffalo
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Ruffalo
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Kalshi
Charles Melton
2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 2.9%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$872
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Melton
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Craig
1.3%
Polymarket 1%polled, 52s agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$156
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Craig
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$272
Trade this on Kalshi
Travis Scott
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Travis Scott
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$361
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy John Leguizamo on Kalshi at 7¢, sell on Polymarket at 72¢ (6500 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Mar 14, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Guitarricadelafuente
  • Paul Giamatti
  • John Leguizamo

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Guitarricadelafuente for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Awards: Best Supporting Actor". Guitarricadelafuente leads at 50.1%. Next is Paul Giamatti at 42.8%. $116K has traded across 30 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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