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What the markets expect
Patrick Ball 35.7%
Next is Shawn Hatosy at 17.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Patrick Ball35.7%38%35.7% fair34¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, just now38¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $263 (2.63x)Patrick Ball35.7%Kalshi 38%(35.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Patrick Ball
35.7%
38%
35.7% fair
34¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, just now
38¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Patrick Ball
35.7%
Kalshi 38%(35.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Patrick Ball
- Last price
- 38%
- Fair, margin removed
- 35.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $3K
Shawn Hatosy17.8%19%17.8% fair15¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, just now23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Shawn Hatosy17.8%Kalshi 19%(17.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Shawn Hatosy
17.8%
19%
17.8% fair
15¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, just now
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Shawn Hatosy
17.8%
Kalshi 19%(17.8% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Shawn Hatosy
- Last price
- 19%
- Fair, margin removed
- 17.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
Jack Lowden4.7%5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Jack Lowden4.7%Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jack Lowden
4.7%
5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Jack Lowden
4.7%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jack Lowden
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $2
Kit Harington4.7%5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Kit Harington4.7%Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kit Harington
4.7%
5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kit Harington
4.7%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kit Harington
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $9
James Marsden3.7%4%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)James Marsden3.7%Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
James Marsden
3.7%
4%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
James Marsden
3.7%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- James Marsden
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $12
Assad Zaman3.3%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Assad Zaman3.3%Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Assad Zaman
3.3%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Assad Zaman
3.3%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Assad Zaman
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Daniel Ings3.3%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Daniel Ings3.3%Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Daniel Ings
3.3%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Daniel Ings
3.3%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Daniel Ings
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Dexter Sol Ansell3.3%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Dexter Sol Ansell3.3%Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Dexter Sol Ansell
3.3%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Dexter Sol Ansell
3.3%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dexter Sol Ansell
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Finn Bennett3.3%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Finn Bennett3.3%Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Finn Bennett
3.3%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Finn Bennett
3.3%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Finn Bennett
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Gerran Howell3.3%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Gerran Howell3.3%Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Gerran Howell
3.3%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Gerran Howell
3.3%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gerran Howell
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Show 6 more outcomesHide 6 outcomes
Ken Leung3.3%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Ken Leung3.3%Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Ken Leung
3.3%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Ken Leung
3.3%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ken Leung
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Matt Smith3.3%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Matt Smith3.3%Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Matt Smith
3.3%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Matt Smith
3.3%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Matt Smith
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Max Minghella3.3%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Max Minghella3.3%Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Max Minghella
3.3%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Max Minghella
3.3%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Max Minghella
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Sam Elliott3.3%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Sam Elliott3.3%Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Sam Elliott
3.3%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Sam Elliott
3.3%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Sam Elliott
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Ewan Mitchell1.9%2%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Ewan Mitchell1.9%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Ewan Mitchell
1.9%
2%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Ewan Mitchell
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ewan Mitchell
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $5
Tie1.8%2%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, just now5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Tie1.8%Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Tie
1.8%
2%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, just now
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Tie
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tie
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $6K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Patrick Ball
- Shawn Hatosy
- Jack Lowden
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Awards: Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series". Patrick Ball leads at 35.7%. Next is Shawn Hatosy at 17.8%. $8K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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