The Prediction Markets

Critics Choice Awards: Best Visual Effects

Closes
Jan 3, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$48K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Dune: Part Three 58.5%

Next is Project Hail Mary at 43.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Dune: Part ThreeArb
58.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 95.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
95.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dune: Part Three
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 36¢ and selling on Polymarket at 94.1¢ nets 5810 bps before fees.

Project Hail MaryArb
43.5%
Polymarket 26%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 84.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
84.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 22¢ and selling on Polymarket at 83¢ nets 6100 bps before fees.

The OdysseyArb
41.7%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 82%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$660
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 23¢ and selling on Polymarket at 80¢ nets 5700 bps before fees.

Godzilla Minus ZeroArb
26.9%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 91%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Godzilla Minus Zero
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$742
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Godzilla Minus Zero
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91.8¢
Sell Yes
90.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$376
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Godzilla Minus Zero
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 90.2¢ nets 8420 bps before fees.

Avengers: DoomsdayArb
19.6%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 40%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$591
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Avengers: Doomsday
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$693
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 38¢ nets 3600 bps before fees.

Spider-Man: Brand New DayArb
18.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 38.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$461
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$805
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$370
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 36¢ nets 3400 bps before fees.

Clayface
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Clayface
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$506
Trade this on Kalshi
Disclosure Day
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$365
Trade this on Kalshi
Supergirl
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Supergirl
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$365
Trade this on Kalshi
The End of Oak Street
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The End of Oak Street
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$365
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
The Mandalorian and Grogu
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Mandalorian and Grogu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$365
Trade this on Kalshi
The Sheep Detectives
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Sheep Detectives
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$365
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$365
Trade this on Kalshi
Werwulf
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Werwulf
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$365
Trade this on Kalshi
Whalefall
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Whalefall
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$599
Trade this on Kalshi
Wildwood
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wildwood
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$365
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Godzilla Minus Zero on Kalshi at 6¢, sell on Polymarket at 90.2¢ (8420 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Critics Choice Awards
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jul 1, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 3, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Dune: Part Three
  • Project Hail Mary
  • The Odyssey

Live prices for Dune: Part Three

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Critics Choice Awards: Best Visual Effects". Dune: Part Three leads at 58.5%. Next is Project Hail Mary at 43.5%. $48K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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