The Prediction Markets

Dancing with the Stars · Episode 8 Elimination

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$156K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Jackson Olson 47.1%

Next is Tyler Cameron at 41.8%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Jackson OlsonArb
47.1%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 62%polled, 23s agoKalshi 62%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jackson Olson
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$759
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jackson Olson
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$411
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson Olson
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 62¢ nets 5780 bps before fees.

Tyler CameronArb
41.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 55%polled, 23s agoKalshi 56%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyler Cameron
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tyler Cameron
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Cameron
Last price
56%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 56¢ nets 5580 bps before fees.

Ezra FrechArb
28.9%
Polymarket 56%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 1.7%polled, 23s agoKalshi 2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ezra Frech
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Ezra Frech
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ezra Frech
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 55¢ nets 5300 bps before fees.

Tatyana AliArb
28.5%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 38.5%polled, 23s agoKalshi 36%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tatyana Ali
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$439
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Tatyana Ali
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tatyana Ali
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 35¢ nets 3310 bps before fees.

Connor WoodArb
15.9%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 26.5%polled, 23s agoKalshi 28%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Connor Wood
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Connor Wood
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Connor Wood
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 28¢ nets 2120 bps before fees.

Amber GlennArb
14.8%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 25%polled, 23s agoKalshi 2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amber Glenn
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Amber Glenn
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$148
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amber Glenn
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 15¢ nets 1300 bps before fees.

Julia Stiles
9.8%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 11%polled, 23s agoKalshi 11%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 11.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $840 (8.40x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julia Stiles
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$840 (8.40x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Julia Stiles
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Julia Stiles
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 11¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11.9¢.

Maura HigginsArb
7.7%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 6.1%polled, 23s agoKalshi 5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maura Higgins
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Maura Higgins
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maura Higgins
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 5¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Jenna Dewan
4.9%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 5%polled, 23s agoKalshi 5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jenna Dewan
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Jenna Dewan
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jenna Dewan
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Harry Shum Jr.
4.1%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4%polled, 23s agoKalshi 5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harry Shum Jr.
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Harry Shum Jr.
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Shum Jr.
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Show 7 more outcomes
None
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
None
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$287
Trade this on Kalshi
Guillermo Rodriguez
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guillermo Rodriguez
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ciara Miller
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ciara Miller
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Hanson
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Hanson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Conner Leavitt
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Conner Leavitt
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$761
Trade this on Polymarket
Giada De Laurentiis
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giada De Laurentiis
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$779
Trade this on Polymarket
Sarah Jane Nader
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Jane Nader
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$626
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Jackson Olson on Polymarket at 4.2¢, sell on Kalshi at 62¢ (5780 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jackson Olson
  • Tyler Cameron
  • Ezra Frech

Live prices for Jackson Olson

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Dancing with the Stars · Episode 8 Elimination". Jackson Olson leads at 47.1%. Next is Tyler Cameron at 41.8%. $156K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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