The Prediction Markets

Dancing With The Stars S35: Week 7 Eliminations

Closes
Oct 28, 2026, in 5 days
Traded
$4.9M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Ezra Frech 43.9%

Next is Eric Adams at 20%. The venues differ most on Jackson Olson (Polymarket 62%, Kalshi 2%), a 60-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 8 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ezra FrechArb
43.9%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 43s agoKalshi 58%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ezra Frech
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$338
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ezra Frech
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$595K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 57¢ nets 5390 bps before fees.

Eric Adams
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eric Adams
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jake Shane
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jake Shane
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jackson OlsonArb
17%
Polymarket 62%polled, 43s agoKalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jackson Olson
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$411
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson Olson
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$299K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 59¢ nets 5600 bps before fees.

Amber GlennArb
14.8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 43s agoKalshi 17%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 14.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $671 (6.71x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amber Glenn
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$671 (6.71x)
Volume
$148
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amber Glenn
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$452K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 14.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 16¢ nets 110 bps before fees.

Tyler CameronArb
14.5%
Polymarket 55%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyler Cameron
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Cameron
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$206K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 54¢ nets 5300 bps before fees.

Tatyana AliArb
10.4%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 43s agoKalshi 1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tatyana Ali
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tatyana Ali
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$102K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 37¢ nets 3600 bps before fees.

Maura Higgins
8.3%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 43s agoKalshi 9%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maura Higgins
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$40
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maura Higgins
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$581K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9.9¢.

Connor WoodArb
8.1%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 43s agoKalshi 2%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Connor Wood
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Connor Wood
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$395K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 25¢ nets 2300 bps before fees.

Julia StilesArb
7.3%
Polymarket 11%polled, 43s agoKalshi 6%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julia Stiles
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Julia Stiles
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$387K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 10¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Jenna Dewan
4.2%
Polymarket 5%polled, 43s agoKalshi 4%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jenna Dewan
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jenna Dewan
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$313K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Harry Shum Jr.
3.2%
Polymarket 4%polled, 43s agoKalshi 3%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harry Shum Jr.
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Shum Jr.
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$367K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Jackson Olson on Kalshi at 3¢, sell on Polymarket at 59¢ (5600 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 7, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Disney+
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 7, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ezra Frech
  • Eric Adams
  • Jake Shane

Live prices for Ezra Frech

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Dancing With The Stars S35: Week 7 Eliminations". Ezra Frech leads at 43.9%. Next is Eric Adams at 20%. $4.9M has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

Dancing With The Stars is a reality dance competition in which celebrities are paired with professional dancers to perform dance routines. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed celebrity's team is eliminated from Dancing With The Stars: Season 35 by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A team that withdraws, or is otherwise removed from the competition, during the specified timeframe will count as eliminated. If no elimination occurs during the specified timeframe, all markets in this event will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcast of Dancing With The Stars: Season 35.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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