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What the markets expect
Ezra Frech 42.4%
Next is Tatyana Ali at 29.1%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Ezra Frech42.4%1.7%0.2¢ bid, 3.1¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed3.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)Ezra Frech42.4%Polymarket 56%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 1.7%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Ezra Frech
42.4%
1.7%
0.2¢ bid, 3.1¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
3.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Ezra Frech
42.4%
Polymarket 56%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 1.7%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ezra Frech
- Last price
- 56%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 57¢
- Sell Yes
- 55¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $175 (1.75x)
- Volume
- $22K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ezra Frech
- Last price
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,226 (32.3x)
- Volume
- $338
Tatyana Ali29.1%38.5%37¢ bid, 40¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed1.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)Tatyana Ali29.1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 38.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Tatyana Ali
29.1%
38.5%
37¢ bid, 40¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
1.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Tatyana Ali
29.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 38.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tatyana Ali
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,263 (52.6x)
- Volume
- $439
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tatyana Ali
- Last price
- 38.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 40¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $250 (2.50x)
- Volume
- $3K
Jackson Olson23.1%61.5%59¢ bid, 64¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed4.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)Jackson Olson23.1%Polymarket 2.3%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 61.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Jackson Olson
23.1%
61.5%
59¢ bid, 64¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
4.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Jackson Olson
23.1%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 61.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jackson Olson
- Last price
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,381 (23.8x)
- Volume
- $759
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jackson Olson
- Last price
- 61.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 64¢
- Sell Yes
- 59¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $156 (1.56x)
- Volume
- $411
Eric Adams18%Not listed18%18¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 26s ago23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Eric Adams18%Kalshi 18%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Eric Adams
18%
Not listed
18%
18¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Eric Adams
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Eric Adams
- Last price
- 18%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $9K
Amber Glenn18%25.4%1.1¢ bid, 49.6¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Amber Glenn18%Polymarket 15.5%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 25.4%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Amber Glenn
18%
25.4%
1.1¢ bid, 49.6¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Amber Glenn
18%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 25.4%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Amber Glenn
- Last price
- 15.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $13K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Amber Glenn
- Last price
- 25.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $202 (2.02x)
- Volume
- $148
Tyler Cameron13.7%54.5%54¢ bid, 55¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Tyler Cameron13.7%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 54.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Tyler Cameron
13.7%
54.5%
54¢ bid, 55¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Tyler Cameron
13.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 54.5%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tyler Cameron
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $324
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tyler Cameron
- Last price
- 54.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 55¢
- Sell Yes
- 54¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $182 (1.82x)
- Volume
- $49
Connor Wood11.3%26%25¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed6.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)Connor Wood11.3%Polymarket 3.7%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 26%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Connor Wood
11.3%
26%
25¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
6.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Connor Wood
11.3%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 26%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Connor Wood
- Last price
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,493 (14.9x)
- Volume
- $7K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Connor Wood
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $4K
Julia Stiles9.6%11%10¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed9.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)Julia Stiles9.6%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 11%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Julia Stiles
9.6%
11%
10¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
9.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Julia Stiles
9.6%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 11%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Julia Stiles
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,010 (10.1x)
- Volume
- $603
Polymarket
- Contract
- Julia Stiles
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $2K
Maura Higgins9.4%6.1%2.2¢ bid, 9.9¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed9.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)Maura Higgins9.4%Polymarket 10.5%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 6.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Maura Higgins
9.4%
6.1%
2.2¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
9.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Maura Higgins
9.4%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 6.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Maura Higgins
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $20K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Maura Higgins
- Last price
- 6.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,010 (10.1x)
- Volume
- $40
Jenna Dewan5.6%4.7%2.2¢ bid, 7.1¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed7.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)Jenna Dewan5.6%Polymarket 6%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 4.7%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Jenna Dewan
5.6%
4.7%
2.2¢ bid, 7.1¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
7.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Jenna Dewan
5.6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 4.7%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jenna Dewan
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $3K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jenna Dewan
- Last price
- 4.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,408 (14.1x)
- Volume
- $1K
Show 7 more outcomesHide 7 outcomes
Harry Shum Jr.3.4%4.1%3.1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Harry Shum Jr.3.4%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 4.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Harry Shum Jr.
3.4%
4.1%
3.1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Harry Shum Jr.
3.4%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 26s agoPolymarket 4.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Harry Shum Jr.
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,695 (16.9x)
- Volume
- $9K
Polymarket
- Contract
- Harry Shum Jr.
- Last price
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Guillermo Rodriguez0.3%0.3%— bid, 0.5¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed0.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $20,000 (200x)Guillermo Rodriguez0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Guillermo Rodriguez
0.3%
0.3%
— bid, 0.5¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
0.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Guillermo Rodriguez
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Guillermo Rodriguez
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $20,000 (200x)
- Volume
- $1K
Ciara Miller0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Ciara Miller0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Ciara Miller
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Ciara Miller
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ciara Miller
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $2K
Taylor Hanson0.2%0.2%— bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)Taylor Hanson0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Taylor Hanson
0.2%
0.2%
— bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Taylor Hanson
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Taylor Hanson
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $3K
Conner Leavitt0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Conner Leavitt0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Conner Leavitt
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Conner Leavitt
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Conner Leavitt
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $761
Giada De Laurentiis0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Giada De Laurentiis0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Giada De Laurentiis
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Giada De Laurentiis
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Giada De Laurentiis
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $779
Sarah Jane Nader0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 26s agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Sarah Jane Nader0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Sarah Jane Nader
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 26s ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Sarah Jane Nader
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 26s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sarah Jane Nader
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $626
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Ezra Frech
- Tatyana Ali
- Jackson Olson
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list Ezra Frech for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Dancing with the Stars S35: Will Eric Adams go on?". Ezra Frech leads at 42.4%. Next is Tatyana Ali at 29.1%. $106K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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