The Prediction Markets

Dancing with the Stars S35: Winner?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$5.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Ezra Frech 55.9%

Next is Amber Glenn at 13.3%. The venues differ most on Harry Shum Jr. (Polymarket 4.6%, Kalshi 6%), a 1.4-point gap.

Ezra Frech 55.9%Amber Glenn 13.3%Maura Higgins 7.8%Jenna Dewan 5.7%Harry Shum Jr. 5.3%9 others 12%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ezra Frech
55.9%
Polymarket 60%(56.3% fair)polled, 51s agoKalshi 59%(55.8% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ezra Frech
Last price
60%
Fair, margin removed
56.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ezra Frech
Last price
59%
Fair, margin removed
55.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$610K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 58¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 59¢.

Amber Glenn
13.3%
Polymarket 14.5%(13.6% fair)polled, 51s agoKalshi 14%(13.2% fair)polled, 51s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amber Glenn
Last price
14.5%
Fair, margin removed
13.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amber Glenn
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
13.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$454K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 13¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

Maura Higgins
7.8%
Polymarket 9%(8.4% fair)polled, 51s agoKalshi 8%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maura Higgins
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
8.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maura Higgins
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$582K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Jenna Dewan
5.7%
Polymarket 6%polled, 51s agoKalshi 6%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jenna Dewan
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jenna Dewan
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$330K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Harry Shum Jr.
5.3%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 51s agoKalshi 6%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harry Shum Jr.
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Shum Jr.
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$372K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.9¢.

Julia Stiles
4.9%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 51s agoKalshi 5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julia Stiles
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Julia Stiles
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$392K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Jackson Olson
2.7%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 51s agoKalshi 3%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jackson Olson
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$759
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson Olson
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$300K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.2¢.

Connor Wood
2.1%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 51s agoKalshi 2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Connor Wood
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Connor Wood
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$395K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Tatyana Ali
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 51s agoKalshi 1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tatyana Ali
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$439
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tatyana Ali
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$102K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Tyler Cameron
0.7%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoKalshi 1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyler Cameron
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Cameron
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$206K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Show 6 more outcomes
Guillermo Rodriguez
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guillermo Rodriguez
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Hanson
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Hanson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ciara Miller
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ciara Miller
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Conner Leavitt
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Conner Leavitt
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$761
Trade this on Polymarket
Giada De Laurentiis
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giada De Laurentiis
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$779
Trade this on Polymarket
Sarah Jane Nader
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Jane Nader
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$626
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official season winner; Polymarket resolves to the celebrity of the winning pair.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 7, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Disney+
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official season winner; Polymarket resolves to the celebrity of the winning pair.
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 7, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ezra Frech
  • Amber Glenn
  • Maura Higgins

Live prices for Ezra Frech

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Dancing with the Stars S35: Winner?". Ezra Frech leads at 55.9%. Next is Amber Glenn at 13.3%. $5.0M has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Dancing with the Stars is a reality dance competition in which celebrities are paired with professional dancers to perform dance routines. This market will resolve to the celebrity participant of the winning team of Dancing with the Stars: Season 35. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contestant whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If Dancing with the Stars: Season 35 concludes without a winner being declared, or if Dancing with the Stars: Season 35 has otherwise not concluded by March 31, 2027, 11:59PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the official broadcast of the final episode of Dancing with the Stars: Season 35.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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