The Prediction Markets

Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Top 3 Finishers

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$349K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Ezra Frech 77%

Next is Amber Glenn at 47.5%. The venues differ most on Maura Higgins (Polymarket 9%, Kalshi 61%), a 52-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ezra FrechArb
77%
Polymarket 59.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ezra Frech
Last price
59.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ezra Frech
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 61¢ and selling on Kalshi at 89¢ nets 2800 bps before fees.

Amber GlennArb
47.5%
Polymarket 15%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amber Glenn
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amber Glenn
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 16¢ and selling on Kalshi at 65¢ nets 4900 bps before fees.

Maura HigginsArb
33.8%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maura Higgins
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maura Higgins
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 10¢ and selling on Kalshi at 60¢ nets 5000 bps before fees.

Harry Shum Jr.Arb
26.5%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harry Shum Jr.
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Shum Jr.
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 6.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 40¢ nets 3320 bps before fees.

Jenna DewanArb
20.8%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jenna Dewan
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jenna Dewan
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 26¢ nets 1900 bps before fees.

Julia StilesArb
13.3%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $962 (9.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julia Stiles
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$962 (9.62x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Julia Stiles
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 10.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 16¢ nets 560 bps before fees.

Connor WoodArb
8.7%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Connor Wood
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Connor Wood
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 420 bps before fees.

Tatyana AliArb
6.3%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tatyana Ali
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$439
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tatyana Ali
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 7¢ nets 510 bps before fees.

Tyler CameronArb
6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyler Cameron
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Cameron
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 6¢ nets 580 bps before fees.

Jackson Olson
2.7%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jackson Olson
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$759
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson Olson
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.6¢.

Show 6 more outcomes
Guillermo Rodriguez
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guillermo Rodriguez
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ciara Miller
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ciara Miller
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Hanson
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Hanson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Conner Leavitt
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Conner Leavitt
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$761
Trade this on Polymarket
Giada De Laurentiis
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giada De Laurentiis
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$779
Trade this on Polymarket
Sarah Jane Nader
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Jane Nader
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$626
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Maura Higgins on Polymarket at 10¢, sell on Kalshi at 60¢ (5000 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ezra Frech
  • Amber Glenn
  • Maura Higgins

Live prices for Ezra Frech

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Top 3 Finishers". Ezra Frech leads at 77%. Next is Amber Glenn at 47.5%. $349K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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