The Prediction Markets

Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Winner

Closes
Jan 7, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$5.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Ezra Frech 57.3%

Next is Amber Glenn at 16.8%. The venues differ most on Maura Higgins (Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 7%), a 3.5-point gap.

Ezra Frech 57.3%Amber Glenn 16.8%Maura Higgins 7.8%Julia Stiles 4.7%Jenna Dewan 4.1%10 others 9.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ezra Frech
57.3%
Polymarket 56%(54.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 58%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ezra Frech
Last price
56%
Fair, margin removed
54.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ezra Frech
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$595K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 57¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 57¢.

Amber Glenn
16.8%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amber Glenn
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Amber Glenn
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$452K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 18¢.

Maura HigginsArb
7.8%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maura Higgins
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Maura Higgins
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$581K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Julia Stiles
4.7%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Julia Stiles
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Julia Stiles
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$387K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.7¢.

Jenna Dewan
4.1%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jenna Dewan
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jenna Dewan
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$313K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Harry Shum Jr.
3%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Harry Shum Jr.
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Shum Jr.
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$367K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Jackson Olson
2.1%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jackson Olson
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$759
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jackson Olson
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$299K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.2¢.

Connor Wood
1.7%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Connor Wood
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Connor Wood
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$395K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Tatyana Ali
1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tatyana Ali
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$439
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tatyana Ali
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$102K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Tyler Cameron
0.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tyler Cameron
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tyler Cameron
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$206K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Show 6 more outcomes
Ciara Miller
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ciara Miller
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Guillermo Rodriguez
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guillermo Rodriguez
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Conner Leavitt
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Conner Leavitt
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$761
Trade this on Polymarket
Giada De Laurentiis
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Giada De Laurentiis
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$779
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Hanson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Hanson
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sarah Jane Nader
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Jane Nader
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$626
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Maura Higgins on Kalshi at 8¢, sell on Polymarket at 9¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official season winner; Polymarket resolves to the celebrity of the winning pair.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 7, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ABC, Disney+
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official season winner; Polymarket resolves to the celebrity of the winning pair.
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 7, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ezra Frech
  • Amber Glenn
  • Maura Higgins

Live prices for Ezra Frech

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Dancing with the Stars Season 35 · Winner". Ezra Frech leads at 57.3%. Next is Amber Glenn at 16.8%. $5.0M has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 7, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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