The Prediction Markets

Datadog customer over$100k ARR in fiscal 2026

Closes
May 27, 2027, in 7 months
Traded
$12K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 5040 93%

Next is Above 5060 at 82%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 5040
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5040
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5060
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5060
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5080
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5080
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5100
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5100
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5120
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5120
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5140
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5140
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5160
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5160
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 5040
  • Above 5060
  • Above 5080

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Datadog customer over$100k ARR in fiscal 2026". Above 5040 leads at 93%. Next is Above 5060 at 82%. $12K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 27, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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