The Prediction Markets

Decibel FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 14 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

20M 51.4%

Next is 50M at 44%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
20M
51.4%
Polymarket 51.4%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 61.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $162 (1.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
20M
Last price
51.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61.8¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$162 (1.62x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
50M
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
50M
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
100M
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
100M
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
200M
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
200M
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
800M
16.2%
Polymarket 16.2%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 28.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $355 (3.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
800M
Last price
16.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28.2¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$355 (3.55x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
300M
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 16.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $621 (6.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
300M
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.1¢
Sell Yes
11.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$621 (6.21x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
500M
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
500M
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$808
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 20M
  • 50M
  • 100M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Decibel FDV above ___ one day after launch?". 20M leads at 51.4%. Next is 50M at 44%. $19K has traded across 7 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Decibel's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Decibel (https://x.com/DecibelTrade) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More crypto markets

See all crypto markets