The Prediction Markets

Deepseek IPO by...?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$56K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

December 31, 2027 63.7%

Next is September 30, 2027 at 62%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
December 31, 2027
63.7%
Polymarket 63.7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 64.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $155 (1.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2027
Last price
63.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
64.7¢
Sell Yes
62.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$155 (1.55x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
September 30, 2027
62%
Polymarket 62%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
September 30, 2027
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
June 30, 2027
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 31, 2027
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 31, 2027
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2026
5.4%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31, 2027
  • September 30, 2027
  • June 30, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Deepseek IPO by...?". December 31, 2027 leads at 63.7%. Next is September 30, 2027 at 62%. $56K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Deepseek completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If Deepseek is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More ai_tech markets

See all ai_tech markets